The “Clash in Cotai” is two days away and the bets are starting to pour in for both Manny Pacquiao and Brandon Rios.
Who’s the better bet? Can the Filipino favorite avoid a third straight disappointment after losing to Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012? Can the American underdog pull off the upset for the third straight time against the former pound-for-pound champion?
Five days ago, we reported how there is virtually no betting value on Pacquiao and how a Rios bet can be the better choice because of the huge payout.
Most of the time, the changes in the betting lines tell the story on what side the public is on. So let’s compare the numbers from Monday to Friday:
Pacquiao vs. Rios Betting Odds (Nov 18) sportsbet.com.au - Pacquiao (1.16) vs. Rios (4.65) bet365.com - Pacquiao (1.16) vs. Rios (5.0) pinnaclesports.com – Pacquiao (1.22) vs. Rios (4.65)
Pacquiao vs. Rios Betting Odds (Nov 22) sportsbet.com.au - Pacquiao (1.16) vs. Rios (4.65) bet365.com - Pacquiao (1.16) vs. Rios (5.0) pinnaclesports.com - Pacquiao (1.20) vs. Rios (5.05)
Both for sportsbet and bet365, the line did not move at all for either Pacquiao or Rios. However, there is a slight change at pinnaclesports—from 1.22, Pacquiao is now priced at 1.20 and Rios from 4.65 is now at 5.05.
For sports betting newbies, here’s the simple formula: X (Amount of Bet) times Betting Odds = Payout.
This means that for every $100 bet on Pacquiao (1.20), the probably winning bettor will get a total payout of $120 (or $20 winnings) or the same $100 bet on Rios (5.05) will net the probable winning bettor of $505 (or $405 winnings).
The change in betting line means that from the Pacquiao payout has now decreased by $2 (from $22 to just $20); while Rios’ payout has increased by $40 (from $365 to $405).
This might be a slight change for the small-time bettor (say those who will bet between $10 and $100) but this has considerable effect on the pro punters (say those who will bet $10,000 and above)—that $2 difference becomes $200 and more for Rios the $40 difference now actually becomes $4,000.
Safe to say, Pacquiao is still the heavy favorite for the fight. But for any kind—the casual bettor or the big-time bettors - timing could very well define a good payout for a better payout.
So here’s the deal. If you are a Pacman supporter, wager on the Filipino now while the betting odds/payout is still relatively high for him.
Then if you are a Bam Bam backer, wait for the best odds come fight day—with the Asian market still waiting to place their bets, that line could increase to around 6.0 hours or minutes before the Clash in Cotai begins.
Odds and Ends – Other Noteworthy Pacquiao vs. Rios Betting Lines to Consider
Over at bet365 they also have the so-called Rounds Betting-- pick a round or result and if you specifically correctly predict what round the fight will finish then you hit the jackpot!
Pacquiao vs. Rios Rounds Betting (Nov 22) Pacquiao in Round 1 (17.0) Pacquiao in Round 2 (15.0) Pacquiao in Round 3 (15.0) Pacquiao in Round 4 (13.0) Pacquiao in Round 5 (13.0) Pacquiao in Round 6 (12.0) Pacquiao in Round 7 (12.0) Pacquiao in Round 8 (13.0) Pacquiao in Round 9 (13.0) Pacquiao in Round 10 (15.0) Pacquiao in Round 11 (15.0) Pacquiao in Round 12 (17.0) Pacquiao by Decision/Technical Decision (4.0) Rios by Round 1 (51.0) Rios by Round 2 (51.0) Rios by Round 3 (51.0) Rios by Round 4 (51.0) Rios by Round 5 (51.0) Rios by Round 6 (41.0) Rios by Round 7 (41.0) Rios by Round 8 (41.0) Rios by Round 9 (41.0) Rios by Round 10 (51.0) Rios by Round 11 (51.0) Rios by Round 12 (51.0) Rios by Decision/Technical Decision (13.0) Draw/Technical Draw (13.0)
Seriously, those are some tasty lines. What’s stopping a better from betting $100 on a Rios KO by Round 10? Should Rios pull off a Marquez and drops Pacquiao cold on that round, then that courageous bettor earns $5,100!
Prediction: Pacquiao wins via an 8th round stoppage.
$3,000 bet on Pacquiao win (1.2) At risk: $3,000 Probable win: +$600
$200 on Pacquiao win in Round 8 (41.0) At risk: $200 Probable win: +$8,200
If Pacquiao wins via 8th round KO Total probable win: +$8,800
If Pacquiao wins but in other rounds or decision: Total probable win: +$400
If Pacquiao loses: Total probable loss: -$3,200