An analyst from Susquehanna Financial Group named Christopher Caso believes that Apple will follow its typical iPhone release cycle with the iPhone 6 release date in the fall, followed by the release of a larger iPad and an iWatch.
Caso adjusted his Apple earnings estimate for the upcoming quarters based on a revised launch timeline for the iPhone 6. He previously thought that Apple might launch the iPhone 6 this summer but now, changed his mind based on his recent supply chain checks. Similar with other analysts, Caso thinks that Apple is prepping to launch two models of iPhone 6 with different screen sizes in the future.
"We expect that a smaller screen version of iPhone 6 will commence production in July, with a larger version beginning production in August," Caso said in a note via Barron's. "While we think the phone launch timing will be similar to last year, based on initial production forecasts, we think there is likely to be more volume available at launch as compared to last year."
Based on Caso's revised iPhone 6 release date timeline, he cut his estimates for the Q2 and Q3 this year. "Note that our estimates had previously been more aggressive, and had assumed that AAPL would be able to ship some iPhone 6 volume in July," Caso further said. "For 2Q, our revised estimates reflect sales of 30 mln iPhones, down from 32.6 mln previously, and slightly lower iPad units (18 mln vs. 20 mln previously). For 3Q, we expect 37 mln iPhone units, which anticipates a very strong launch with more volume available vs. last year."
The supply chain checks of Caso also indicated that the Cupertino tech giant is developing the much anticipated iWatch and a larger iPad. "[W]e have finally noted two new products on the production schedule, including a watch as well as a 12" tablet that contains a keyboard," said Caso.
On the other hand, Caso also introduced his estimates for fiscal year 2015 based on a possible iWatch and iPad Pro launch in the last quarter of 2014.
Caso is not the only analyst who predicts the arrival of the iWatch this year. In fact, Ming-Chi Kuo, a famous KGI Securities analyst said that the iWatch will be launched before this year ends.