Global Warming to Exacerbate Britain Summer Rains, Floods – Study

  on June 03 2014 1:52 PM
  • A map showing a land mine field is seen in the water during heavy floods in the village of Prud May 20, 2014. Communities in Serbia and Bosnia battled to protect towns and power plants on Monday from rising flood waters and landslides that have devastated
    A map showing a land mine field is seen in the water during heavy floods in the village of Prud May 20, 2014. Communities in Serbia and Bosnia battled to protect towns and power plants on Monday from rising flood waters and landslides that have devastated swathes of both countries and killed dozens of people. REUTERS/Srdjan Zivulovic (BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA - Tags: DISASTER ENVIRONMENT)
  • A veterinarian puts a rope around a pig's head to help it out of water during heavy floods in the village of Prud, May 20, 2014.Communities in Serbia and Bosnia battled to protect towns and power plants on Monday from rising flood waters and landslides th
    A veterinarian puts a rope around a pig's head to help it out of water during heavy floods in the village of Prud, May 20, 2014.Communities in Serbia and Bosnia battled to protect towns and power plants on Monday from rising flood waters and landslides that have devastated swathes of both countries and killed dozens of people. REUTERS/Srdjan Zivulovic (BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA - Tags: DISASTER ENVIRONMENT TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY ANIMALS)
  • A man walks past a house tilted by floods in the town of Valjevo, southwest from Belgrade May 21, 2014. Picture taken May 21. REUTERS/Marko Djurica (SERBIA - Tags: DISASTER ENVIRONMENT TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
    A man walks past a house tilted by floods in the town of Valjevo, southwest from Belgrade May 21, 2014. Picture taken May 21. REUTERS/Marko Djurica (SERBIA - Tags: DISASTER ENVIRONMENT TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
  • A goal post is pictured in a field flooded by water from a tributary of the Amazon river, in the Botafogo riverside community near Manaus March 29, 2014. The 2014 World Cup will be held in Brazil from June 12 through July 13.  In Brazil, soccer goalposts
    A goal post is pictured in a field flooded by water from a tributary of the Amazon river, in the Botafogo riverside community near Manaus March 29, 2014. The 2014 World Cup will be held in Brazil from June 12 through July 13. In Brazil, soccer goalposts can be found almost anywhere, from slums to sandy beaches. The FIFA Laws of the Game specify the length between the goal posts is 8 yards (7.32m); the lower edge of the crossbar should be 8 ft. (2.44m) from the ground; and the posts themselves should be 5 inches (12cm) or smaller. But all sorts of other goals are used by amateur players, who can employ anything from scraps of wood nailed together, to rusting pieces of metal to play a game of soccer. Brazil is getting ready to host the 2014 World Cup this summer. Picture taken March 29, 2014. REUTERS/Bruno Kelly (BRAZIL - Tags: SOCIETY SPORT SOCCER WORLD CUP) ATTENTION EDITORS: PICTURE 13 OF 24 FOR PACKAGE 'BRAZIL - IT'S A GOAL!'. TO FIND ALL IMAGES SEARCH 'GOALPOSTS'
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A study by the Met Office and Newcastle University published in the Nature and Climate Change journal has revealed how global warming and climate change will most definitely impact the occurrence of summer downpours and flash flooding in Britain.

"Short duration rain events are predicted to intensify during the summer months in the southern United Kingdom," the AAP reported, citing the study. "This predicted increase means more events would exceed the Met Office and Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre guidance threshold for serious flash flooding."

Researchers said they forecast the country could possibly experience five times the number of "extreme rainfall events" topping 28mm per hour.

"It is dry periods interspersed with these very intense downpours, and we are talking about thresholds of 30mm and above in an hour over quite a large area here, which would be associated with really severe flash flooding," Dr Lizzie Kendon, the report's lead author, told BBC News.

"Changes in precipitation extremes are occurring under climate change, as the atmosphere warms and the capacity of air to hold water vapour grows," the study said.

The study used a high-resolution model, typically used for weather forecasting, to simulate hourly rainfall in the UK in the year 2100. Researchers used a model usually employed for weather forecasting to investigate hourly rainfall changes in the southern UK.

"Most people would be familiar with this model," Kendon said. "It is the same one that is used for the weather forecasts on the BBC, so it is incredibly realistic and it represents these very intense convective-type storms that haven't been captured before."

The model's high resolution 1.5 km grid spacing allows projections of rainfall events and intensities on an hourly timescale. "The results confirmed previous findings of winter rainfall intensification and found that short-duration rainfall intensified in summer, increasing the risk of flash flooding."

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