Daily Forex Forecast 02/15/2013

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Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar has done well to consolidate the impressive gains seen across the higher yielding asset on Wednesday. Despite a session of mixed messages in which European growth figures failed to match expectation, signs of slow growth in Japan also did little tarnish the prospects of the Australian dollar. Remaining firm above 1.0325 over the past 24 hours highs above 1.0350 were however short lived. In the absence of any local data today and with only mid-tier data releases expected out of the US this evening investors attention will be focused on G20 Meetings which are running over the weekend. This morning the Aussie is overall unchanged at 1.0347

We expect a range today of 1.0320 – 1.0380

New Zealand Dollar Sending the New Zealand dollar immediately higher yesterday the nation’s manufacturing sector has gotten off to a surprisingly strong start to 2013. In figures released the Business NZ Manufacturing Index jumped in January with a reading of 55.2 comfortably beating the expected figure of 50.4. Further fuelling demand for the Kiwi yesterday food prices rose by 1.9 percent in January, the largest single increase since July 2011. Rallying a full US cent from opening levels, mid afternoon highs of 0.8531 were briefly witnessed. Consolidating those gains this morning the Kiwi opens well and truly in positive territory as it currently buys 84.85 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8450 – 0.8520

Great British Pound: The woes of the Great British Pound have continued overnight with the Sterling losing further ground against its US Counterpart. Having depreciated just short of 5 percent this year, it remains the second-worst performing major currency after the Japanese Yen. Falling to a low of 1.5474 triggering losses was the release of a report which showed the euro-area recession deepened last quarter. Having been reminded that there still remains a lot of issues within the euro-region the Sterling opens weaker this morning at a rate of 1.5483. Meanwhile on the cross rates the story is a familiar one with the Sterling opening lower against the Aussie (1.4954) and the Kiwi (1.8281)

We expect a range today of 1.4930 -1.4990

Majors: The Euro dropped against all 16 of its major counterparties last night after a report showed Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, shrunk in the final quarter of last year by 0.6 percent. Highlighting the full extent of the challenges facing Policy Makers signs of below par growth were also witnessed in France which contracted by 0.3 percent as well as Italy which was the worst of them all given its GDP fell by 0.9%. In what can only be described as awful figures, figures which draw attention to the optimistic stance of the ECB who have several times this year talked up the prospects of a steady economic recovery in 2013 it came as no surprise to see the Shared unit lose ground across the board overnight. Tumbling from opening levels of 1.3450 the Euro opens noticeably weaker this morning at 1.3343. Jumping across the US, despite weekly jobless claims which decreased to 27 000, the most in a month key indexes finished the day in relatively neutral position as did the USD/JPY which opens mildly weaker this morning at 93.021.

Data releases

AUD: No Data today

NZD: Retail Sales q/q

JPY: Revised Industrial Production m/m, BOJ Monthly Report

GBP: Retail Sales m/m

EUR: Italian Trade Balance

USD: Empire State Manufacturing, TIC Long-term purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production /m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

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