Australian Dollar Outlook - 29 January 2013

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Bell FX Currency Outlook: Australian dollar tumbles to lowest level in a month as markets consolidate.

Australia: Both the US dollar and the EUR have gained ground pushing the AUD to its lowest level since January 1st. The local unit tumbled from 1.0450 against the Greenback seen prior to the Australia Day long weekend, to lows back below 1.0400.

The AUD has weakened in recent days following the weaker than expected domestic inflation read, which saw chances of further interest rate cuts for 2013 back creep back into the market.

Figures showed CPI rose by only 2.2 per cent in 2012; which is at the bottom end of the RBA's target range.

Appeared improving economic outlooks for both Europe and the US is also weighing on the currency as markets appear to be stabilising and some of the money invested in the AUD is coming out again.

Key for the AUD direction this week will be the US FOMC statement on Wednesday night. A stream of better than expected data has come out of the US of late, improved sentiment from the Fed will likely further buoy markets.

Today domestically, NAB investor confidence figures shall be released at 11:30am.

Majors: It was a mixed session for equity markets with US equities ending the session little changed; although near recent highs following the stream of strong corporate earnings this month.

The S&P ended 0.1% lower at 1,502 while the DJIA was unchanged at 13,902. US durable goods for December were released better than expectations rising 4.6% m/m.

European equities were mixed overnight with the German DAX declining 0.3% to 7,833, while the FTSE gained 0.2% to 6,294. Comments from the bank of England Governor saw the pound depreciate, adding to recent selling pressure due to uncertainty around the UK's European Union membership.

Commodity and metals prices were mixed although generally higher. The better than expected US data supported oil prices which saw WTI futures rise 0.5% to USD 96.5 per barrel and Brent rising 0.3% to USD 113.5 per barrel. Tonight will see Consumer confidence figures released in the US.Economic Calendar29 JAN AU NAB Business Conditions/ConfidenceNZ Trade BalanceUS Consumer ConfidenceIT Italy to sell Bills

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