Australian Dollar Outlook - 27 June 2014

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Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has consolidated above 94 cents after a quiet session.

Australia: Yesterday saw another quiet session for the AUD as it traded within a 30 point range. The only Australian data out yesterday was ABSjob vacancies, which rose 2.5% over three months to May, although this drew little reaction from the market. Overnight the AUD roughly correlatedwith US equities as data was mostly in line with expectations (although consumer spending was a touch softer).

We came off highs as the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Fox Business Network that he favors raising rates in early 2015, earlier than most of his colleagues at the Fed. This saw some general support for the USD.

The exception was against the NZD, which continued its strong run since the start of June, gaining another half cent overnight (against the USD) to0.8780 and is up from 84 cents at the start of the month.

Today looks to be another quiet one, with no domestic data, although the RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent will appear before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into foreign investment in residential real estate. Also out today is Japanese CPI and unemployment data.

Majors: As stated above the USD was broadly stronger following the comments from Bullard. As far as US data went, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditure, printed in line with expectations at 0.2% MoM.

Personal spending slightly missed expectations (0.2% vs. 0.4% expected) and initial jobless claims were 2k worse than expected at 312k, but none of this had much effect on the market. The GBP rose to near a five year high before tonight's UK GDP report which is expected to show a 0.8% expansion in the first quarter of this year.

European data takes centre stage tonight as French GDP, Eurozone consumer and business confidence and German CPI are also released.

Economic Calendar27 JUN JN Natl CPI YoY MayCH Industrial Profits YTD YoY MayUK GDP QoQ/YoY 1QEC Consumer Confidence Jun

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