Australian Dollar Outlook - 25 July 2014

By @ibtimesau on
Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker
Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar kicked higher yesterday after China's flash manufacturing data as reported by HSBC for July rose to 52 from last month's figure of 50.7.

Australia: The AUD traded over .9470 as the financial markets reacted positively to the latest news from China. Overnight the AUD has retreatedto the low .9400's as a run of better economic figures from the US and to a limited degree from Europe has trained investors' eyes on the potentialimproving economic situation in the US and Europe.

The S&P 500 index touched a new historical high as earnings anouncements were generally positive. Gold fell to a five week low as investors  abandoned safe haven assets.

The AUD cross rates with most major currencies improved and the AUDEUR rate moved above .7000 briefly. The AUDNZD rose after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised their cash rate another 25 bps to 3.50% but indicated that further rises would be on hold for a number ofmonths.

Majors: In the US, the Kansas City Federal Reserve's manufacturing index kicked up strongly to 9 this month from last month's 6 figure. The Markit flash manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 56.3 from June's figure of 57.3. Weekly jobless claims fell by 19k to 284k which is now at an 8 year low.

This information outweighed a decline in new home sales of 8.1% in June and May's figure was further revised downward by 12.3%. Thisfigure must be kept in perspective since new home sales represent only 7% of all home sales. In Europe, the composite manufacturing andservices PMI data for July rose to 54 this month from 52.8 in June.

The IMF has revised downward slightly their 2014 growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.4% for Europe but kept their forecast of 4% growth for 2015unchanged. Espirito Santo Financial Group SA which owns 20% of of the Porrtuguese bank, Banco Expirito Santo Sa, has sought protection fromcreditors in Luxembourg, which was a slight dampener on the financial sector.

Later today we will see a slew of data beginning with CPI data from Japan followed by the July German IFO business survery, UK's latest GDP figures and than the latest capital and durable goods data from the US.Economic Calendar25 JUL GE IFO Business Climate JulUK GDP QoQ/YoY JunUS Durable Goods Orders/core orders Jun

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