Australian Dollar Outlook - 23 June 2014

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Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has come off its recent highs to start this week of trading below 0.9400.

Australia: It was a quiet day of trading on Friday as the recent rise of the AUD ran out of steam. The USD was broadly higher as the major shareindices in the US again rose close to or above record highs.

Gold and oil prices came off slightly as the US announced they would send 300 military advisers to Iraq as the civil war there escalates. Iron ore kicked up slightly by 1.50% on Friday to USD92.10 per tonne stemming its recent decline after it slid to its lowest level in two years last week.

Today at 11:45 AEST we will see the results of the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI data which can always have an effect on the AUD. It is expected the index will rise to 49.8 from May's level of 49.4. It is a fairly light week for data out of Australia with the only other announcements of note the ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence result tomorrow followed by a speech by RBA

Deputy Governor Lowe on Wednesday and the job vacancy figures from the ABS on Thursday. If the Chinese manufacturing data surprises on theupside we could see the AUD trading over .9400 again.

Majors: On Friday, Canada's inflation figure for May printed at 0.5% versus the 0.3% result expected by the market. The CAD cross rateimproved against most currencies as inflation expectations increased although the Bank of Canada still maintains its relative dovish stance onmonetary policy.

The UK's public borrowing in May came in at GBP9.6bn versus the higher figure of GBP12bn which was expected. Midweek we will see a whole slew of data from the US  including GDP, capital goods and durable goods figures as well as PCE delator figures which usually give us the best read on the future direction of inflation.

Economic Calendar23 JUN CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMIUS Existing home sales / MoMNZ Credit Card Spending MoM

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