Australian Dollar Outlook -09 July 2014

By @ibtimesau on

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has traded overnight above .9400 as the latest local business confidence and conditions were better than expected.

Australia: The AUD drifted up toward .9400 as the NAB business confidence survey for June indicated a rise from 7 to 8 and also an improvement in business conditions from -1 to 2.

The ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence index was not quite as good weakening from its previous level of 105.4 to 105.1. Today we will see the latest results from the Westpac consumer confidence survey.

With these latest surveys the chances of any possible future rate cuts locally have significantly reduced giving further support to the AUD. We will see the latest CPI and PPI figures from China at 11:30 AEST today but we expect this to have little effect on the AUD.

Majors: Overnight we saw UK industrial production for May fall 0.7% versus a market expectation of a rise 0.3%. Manufacturing productionwhich comprises 75% of industrial production fell 1.3% mom. Most analysts believe this is just more of a one-off decline since the UK economy has been growing steadily over recent months.

German exports in May fell more than expected by 1.1% versus the decline of 0.4%. Tonight we will see the release of the latest FOMC minutes and analysts will be looking for further clues of future monetary policy changes from the US Federal Reserve.

In the US, the National Association of Realtors revealed that foreigners bought USD92.2bn of property in the USA during the year ending March, 2014. Chinese citizens were the single largest group of buyers. The credit rating agency Fitch upgraded the credit outlook for the NZD from stable to positive which helped the NZD trade over the .8800 level versus the USD for only the second time since its float in 1985.Economic Calendar09 JUL AU ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence IndexGE Current Account BalanceUS NFIB Small Business Optimism

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