USDCHF Weekly Outlook
December 19, 2010 8:53 AM EST
Judging from the choppy price actions after initial fall last week, a short term bottom might be formed at 0.9557 already. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations would be seen above 0.9557 first. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out but we'd expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.0065 to 0.9557 at 0.9871 and bring another all. After all, we believe that correction from 0.9462 low is completed with three waves up to 1.0065 already and fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the larger down trend. Below 0.9557 should target 0.9462 low and then 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349
In the bigger picture, outlook in USD/CHF remains bearish with 1.0330 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1729 to 0.9462 at 1.0328) intact. The long term down trend is still expected to continue towards 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. However, decisive break of 1.0330 will indicate that whole fall from 1.1729 has completed and stronger rebound should be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.0863 and possibly above.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.