Kiwi Parties National And Labour In Equal Chance To Form Government : Survey

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By Kalyan Kumar | September 4, 2014 6:17 PM EST

New Zealand election results are becoming unpredictable. If the latest TV3 poll is any indication, chances are equal for National or Labour to form a government. 

The only difference will be that National will need the support of just one more party to rule. That may be the Maori Party or New Zealand First. The chances are that National would form a government very similar to the current one, with the backing of the Maori Party, Act and United Future on confidence and supply, reported NZ Herald.

REUTERS
Reserve Bank of New Zealand dollar notes are pictured in Singapore in this June 22, 2006 file photo.

Given a chance to form the government, Labour Party would be needing both the Maori Party and New Zealand First, besides the Greens and Internet Mana.

In terms of potential vote share, National's party vote is up in the poll by 1.4 points and moved to 46.4 per cent share in the past week.

The share of Labour nosedived by 0.5 to touch 25.9 per cent; the Greens are also down 0.9 to 12.6 per cent; New Zealand First crashed 0.5 to 5.8 per cent; the Conservatives lost by 0.4 to 4.2 per cent of votes.

Among the gainers include Maori Party with a higher share of 1.3 to 2 per cent; But Internet Mana is down 0.4 to 1.7 per cent. The Act Party shored up its share by 0.3 to 0.6; United Future down by 0.3 to 0.1.

John Key Favoured PM

For the prime minister's job, New Zealanders like John Key more. His preference went up 3.7 points to 45.1. The profile of Labour leader David Cunliffe also shot up by 0.3 to 11.4.

The poll was conducted among 1,000 respondents between Aug 26 and Sept 1. There will be a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent in the results.

National Predicament

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal analysed the New Zealand poll scene where 4.5 million people will be voting under the multiparty system, which is similar to the German model.

It noted that National is vulnerable because their supporting partners are few. Labour, with its partners like the Greens, can get 40 per cent of the total vote.

The Wall Street report mentions that the weakness of Labour is its fragile leadership. For many, Cunliffe is not a popular choice for prime ministership.

But political commentators are not ready to write him off as the ex-diplomat was a clear victor at one of two debates with the PM that had focus on the so-called dirty politics.

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(Photo: REUTERS / Dennis Owen)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand dollar notes are pictured in Singapore in this June 22, 2006 file photo.
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