Australian Dollar Outlook - 13 August 2014

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By Christine Gaylican | August 13, 2014 10:33 AM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar remained in a tight range during a quiet session.

Australia: The AUD saw only a 30 point range over the last twenty-four hours as volatility remains subdued.

Reuters
U.S. one-hundred dollar bills are seen in this photo illustration at a bank in Seoul August 2, 2013. Picture taken August 2, 2013.

Yesterday the NAB released its business confidence and conditions figures, with both showing a rise on the previous month and conditions are currently at the highest level since March 2010. There was more good news in the composition of the numbers, with all components showing improvements.

However this good news failed to make a significant impact on the AUD, with only a small spike over the number which retraced back to 0.9250 during the afternoon.

Overnight the AUD was a little stronger, touching a high around 0.9275. Today sees quite a data-heavy session, with Westpac consumer
confidence (which the RBA is watching with interest) and wage price index released domestically, while in Asia, Japanese GDP and a series of
releases out of China (industrial production, retail sales and urban investment) will be keenly watched.

Majors: The main focus overnight was some very poor German ZEW data and also geopolitical tensions once again making headlines. The
EUR fell again to near its nine month low reached last week as both the economic sentiment and current situation numbers in the ZEW survey
disappointed. This situation once again raises concerns over the outlook for Europe, as inflation remains subdued. The USD was slightly higher
after a better than expected NIFB business optimism index reading and the situation is Russia might also have seem some buying of USD.

The main concern last night was over the 280 truck aid convey heading to the Ukraine boarder and whether the Russians will try and cross it or hand their cargo over to the International Red Cross. There are several data items to keep an eye on tonight, with German CPI, UK employment
figures, BOE quarterly inflation report, Eurozone industrial production and US retail sales all being released.
Economic Calendar
13 AUG AU Westpac Consumer Con SA MoM
AU Wage Cost Index QoQ/YoY
JN GDP SA QoQ
GE CPI MoM/YoY

For the latest pricing, ranges visit www.bellpotter.com.au

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(Photo: Reuters / )
U.S. one-hundred dollar bills are seen in this photo illustration at a bank in Seoul August 2, 2013. Picture taken August 2, 2013.
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