Prescription Drugs Sales to Reach $1 Trillion Before 2020
By Vittorio Hernandez | August 5, 2014 11:56 AM EST
With many products nearing patent expiration, prescription drug sales are expected to surpass the $1 trillion mark by 2020, EvaluatePharma reported in its 7th edition World Preview report.
Global 2000 has come out with its list of top 2000 companies of which many pharmaceuticals are part of.
The report said the industry's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will grow substantially more than five years from now, peaking at 5.1 per cent.
Around $259 billion total sales are believed to be at risk of patent expiration.
"[I]t is expected that the impact of biological patent expiries will go a long way to reduce the rate of cannibalization that actually materializes (containing it to 46%), thus allowing the pharmaceutical industry to continue to grow without suffering the loss of reduced sales," the report said.
Interesting to note is that none of the top 10 sellers of 2013 are expected to dominate by 2020. EvaluatePharma said newly introduced biologic products like Sovaldi, Xarelto, Nivolumab and Tecfidera will round up the top 10 list in 2020.
The report said Novartis, which recently toppled Pfizer as the top company in the pharmaceutical business, will continue to lead the pack in terms of sales until 2020. For the generic drug market, Teva Pharmacuetical will remain the top company, while Gilead Sciences will double its enterprise value.
According to EvaluatePharma, Oxycontin will no longer be in the top 50 selling products in the world in 2020, unlike in 2013.
This may either mean that Oxycontin sales is expected to drop - for various reasons like changing consumer needs and demands - or that a competitor will get a larger share.
It is important to take note of such information since Oxycontin is among the popular painkillers being abused by patients.
The product has repeatedly been cited as the opioid of choice of celebrities and even doctors suffering from prescription drug dependence. This has led to reports of health care providers steering clear of the drug.
On the other hand, the problem of drug dependence has led to the promotion and increased sale of anti-addiction medication such as naltrexone.
Manufacturers have also started experimenting with the form of drugs -- painkillers coming in "abuse-deterrent" forms and anti-addiction drugs in injection or implant form to address the problem of non-compliance among patients.
BioCorRx Inc. (BICX) is one such company utilizing the implant form of naltrexone to address non-compliance in its Start Fresh Program. Naltrexone has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat alcohol and opioid addiction for decades.
The program, which uses a dual approach of medication and one-on-one life coaching, is now being used in many alcohol and drug addiction clinics in the US.
To contact the editor, e-mail: