Australian Dollar Outlook - 22 July 2014

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By Christine Gaylican | July 22, 2014 11:14 AM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: FX markets trade was again quiet, with yesterday's Japanese holiday quelling whatever latent interest may have been around.
Australia: AUD a little lower at around 0.9370 this morning. Today at 9:30AEST RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle will speak on a panel and RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak at the Anika Foundation Luncheon in Sydney at 13:00AEST. We are expecting these speeches to provide little new information on the Bank's thinking on monetary policy given there has been a lot of communication from the RBA recently, including a detailed interview with the Governor.


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange July 17, 2014. U.S. stocks fell sharply lower on Thursday, with the S

Last week's read of the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index is published at 9:30AEST.

Majors: Geopolitical issues continue to dominate the backdrop, but the currency market impact is now extremely modest. In the past two hours, the UN has passed a resolution (with Russian support) endorsing an independent investigation into the cause of the crash. Meanwhile Russian separatists have reportedly begun the process of allowing transportation of the remains of victims to the Netherlands for identification.

Key today will be RBNZ Deputy Governor Grant Spencer's speech on prudential regulation this afternoon. The market is set for an RBNZ rate hike on Thursday, and if the RBNZ is set to surprise by not moving, one would expect some signal of that from Spencer today. Beyond that, tonight's US CPI data for June result is likely to further confirm that the low for inflation this cycle is in, and add to the view that the Fed is likely to move toward its first rate hike over the first half of 2015.
Economic Calendar
22 JUL AU RBA Stevens Speaks at Anika Foundation lunch on issues in
Economic Policy
US CPI MoM/YoY Jun
US CPI ex Food and Energy MoM/YoY Jun

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange July 17, 2014. U.S. stocks fell sharply lower on Thursday, with the S
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