Australian Dollar Outlook - 14 July 2014

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By Christine Gaylican | July 14, 2014 11:23 AM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has opened this morning below .9400 after a very quiet day of trading on Friday.

A Canadian five-dollar bill is seen in this posed photograph in Montreal March 10, 2011.

Australia: The AUD traded in a tight range on Friday and we have seen no real reaction to another interview that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens
gave over the weekend where he warned that we should not be complacent about the Australian economy and always assume our growth will be positive.

He reminded investors that the AUD is overvalued but his comments have no real effect this morning. The market will be dissecting
the RBA Board minutes for July which will be released tomorrow for further hints to future monetary policy.

Financial markets are still pricing in a good chance of a rate cut here in early 2015 but there are many that still do not believe this will happen. Last Friday we saw the most recent home loan data which was flat for May as compared to the previous month while lending for investment purposes fell 0.9% in May after rising 2.5% in April.

Wednesday could be a more crucial day for the AUD when we will see China Q2 GDP results along with a number of other economic activity
figures for June. Analysts are expecting the target figure of 7.5% will be met when the announcement is made.

Majors: From the US, Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the US Federal Reserve is closer to raising rates than many expect and that
all the employment goals may not be met before rates rise.

Most analysts are picking that sometime in Q2 2015 the cash rates will begin to rise in
the US. On Tuesday we will see the latest retail sales figures from the US as well some manufacturing data when the Empire survey is announced.

There was a lower than expected industrial production in the UK figure released on Friday for May (-1.1%) as compared to the +0.9% expected
but that index is still higher by 3.5% yoy. The CAD fell around 1% on Friday after their unemployment rate rose to 7.1% from 7% and 9.4k jobs
were lost as compared to the 20k gain that was predicted.

Today in Japan we will see the latest industrial production numbers for May followed tonight by the Eurozone's industrial production numbers.
Economic Calendar
14 JUL NZ REINZ House Price Index
JN Industrial Production MoM / YoY
EA Industrial Production MoM / YoY

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(Photo: Reuters / )
A Canadian five-dollar bill is seen in this posed photograph in Montreal March 10, 2011.
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