World Cup 2014: Australia Has 0.1 Chance of Being the Champion
By Athena Yenko | May 29, 2014 12:14 PM EST
Australia has but 0.1 chance of becoming the champion for the World Cup with odds at 1500/1 - this is according to the statistics from Goldman Sachs' The World Cup and Economics 2014 report.
According to the report, the country's chance is slim because one, the Socceroos is the lowest-ranked side all teams with a FIFA world ranking of 59 as compared to its competitors: Spain at number 1, the Netherlands at number 15, and Chile at number 13.
Second, Socceroos have conceded to fewer than 19 goals over just 5 games in the past years side by side its possible opponents for this year. The team had the "demoralising" 6-0 defeats to both Brazil and France in the past that led to sacking of the coach at that time.
Third, Australia's most capped player Mark Schwarzer had already retired. According to Goldman Sachs, his retirement confirms "that the sun has all but set on the Golden Generation." Only team Talisman's Tim Cahill and Marco Bresciano are likely starters in Brazil out of the 14 players playing for Australia, Goldman Sachs said.
With this, Goldman Sachs saw similarity between the immense challenge the country is facing at the World Cup and the domestic economy the country has at present.
"The dual booms in commodity prices and mining construction that delivered Australia through the global financial crisis relatively unscathed are now swinging sharply into reverse. And against this backdrop, the stubbornly high AUD and switch to contractionary fiscal policy are acting as handbrakes to a nascent economic recovery," report author Andrew Boak said.
In the 'economic cup', like the Socceroos facing Brazil's Group of Death, the local policy makers are burdened with the massive challenge of elevated economic risk.
"The burden on local policy makers is therefore a heavy one, and the government is taking a significant risk by seeking to underpin Australia's AAA credit rating via a combination of the largest cuts to public expenditure in almost two decades and the introduction of unpopular tax increases," Boak said.
The report raised a very interesting analogy.
"As kick-off in Brazil approaches, the current Prime Minister may reflect with unease that Australia's last appearance in the World Cup on June 23, 2010 coincided with the then Prime Minister being unexpectedly usurped by his Deputy - in large part in response to the government's mishandling of taxation issues."
Looking on a brighter side, win or lose, The Socceroos will have all the support of the fans as the country has the second-largest purchase of tickets to World cup matches.
To date, Australia had already purchased 41 thousand tickets next to US with 154 thousand tickets purchased, and ahead of both England (38k) and Colombia (33k).
"Cynics may view such demand as merely a function of the purchasing power of an elevated AUD and the drawcard of an exotic beach holiday on Ipanema. However, for the true believers, there is always the hope that Brazil will mark the dawn of another 'Golden Generation'," Boak wrote.
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