Apple Inc.’s New High at $607 – Real Breakout or Post-news Buyout

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By Athena Yenko | May 20, 2014 1:13 PM EST

Apple Inc. reached another 52-week high at $607.33 after Friday close at $597.51. The stock was at 605.66 an hour and fifteen minutes before closing, according to report from 24/7 WALLSt.

According to real time data published by NASDAQ OMX (May 19), Apple stock is at $604, previous close at $597.51; today's high at $607.33, today's low at $594.97; 52-week high at 604, 52-week low at $388.87.

There had been an upward consistent movement with Apple's stock since its announcement of the 7 for 1 stock split. Following the announcement, shares started climbing from 4530, $560 and another high at $600.

While the movement could be exciting for investors, the new high reached by the stock may just be a post-news buyout ahead of the 7 for 1 stock split. Of course, investors are crossing fingers that the new high is a real breakout.

Writing for 24/7 WALLSt, Jon C. Ogg noted that this new high was not an all-time high. With still a September fiscal year-end to come, Apple's 50-day moving average remained unimpressive at $549.97 with the 200-day moving average lower at $520.42.

While analysts seemed to have a consensus increased price target for the stock at $626.93 on Monday and the stock is still valued at 13.7-times for 2014 earnings and 12.7 times estimated 2015 earnings, still this new time high poses big risk to investors.

Corey Rosenbloom from Afraid to Trade  warns against possible "bull trap" noting that the new high could return under $600 per share "prior resistance/ceiling".

Rosenbloom advised to give a critical look at $600 in relation to the potential "Bull Trap "outcome and place stops only until a continued upward activity pushes the stock to reach $630.

"For now, we'll monitor price with respect to the $600 level for the potential of bullish trend continuity and another upward impulse that could develop quickly above $600 (in the event buyers step in aggressively and short-sellers similarly buy-to-cover losing positions).Initial targets suggest a move toward $630, a pause/consolidation, and potential 'wave' movement toward $650 and even the $665 levels ahead of a future pathway that could extend toward $700 per share in the future (as long as the short-term uptrend continues without a future reversal)," Rosenbloom wrote.

On the other hand,  writing for Forbes, Joel Kornblau  advised that selling a put does not guarantee an investor to gain from Apple's upside potential unless the company exercised the contract.

"So unless Apple sees its shares fall 1% and the contract is exercised (resulting in a cost basis of $588.75 per share before broker commissions, subtracting the $11.25 from $600), the only upside to the put seller is from collecting that premium for the 20.7% annualized rate of return," he wrote.

Kornblau emphasised that if an investor bought Apple's stock at the current or estimated price target with the intentions of just collecting the dividend, the investor is vulnerable to greater risks as Apple stock would need to go down 1.01 per cent in order to reach a $600 strike price.

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