Australia, Asia Advised To Brace For Potential El Niño In 2014, Deficient Rains May Come

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By Esther Tanquintic-Misa | January 30, 2014 3:18 PM EST

Weather forecasters from Australia and the U.S. have warned an El Niño weather pattern may likely hit the country and parts of Asia this year. If this occurs, chances are farm growers will experience deficient rains this year.

In a statement, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said some models indicated the tropical Pacific will warm through the southern autumn and winter. Some models Claimed this warm weather will reach El Niño levels by early winter.

"Less spring rainfall for the east coast would be the major concern for Australia," Paul Deane, an analyst at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said.

"It increases the chances that we're not going to get trend wheat yields, that would be one of the risks. The other one would be on livestock, where you'd have lower pasture growth."

The BoM's assessment confirmed the observations released by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York early in January. Gavin Schmidt, deputy director, noted the last El Niño has been 5 years ago.

Indonesia's Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysics Agency said an El Niño usually happens every 2 to 7 years.

Even Delhi-based weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services strongly believed the El Niño could emerge this year.

"2014 can be an El Niño year. It will be in an emerging stage through the monsoon months of June, July, August and September," the Indian weather service said.

In Australia, the country's El Niños happened in 2009-2010, 2006-2007 and 2002-2003.

Australia's autumn runs from March to May. Winter is from June to August.

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