Australian Dollar Outlook - December 5, 2013

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By Christine Gaylican | December 5, 2013 12:18 PM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: Yesterday in Australia, GDP grew by only 0.6% q/q in Q3, weaker than market expectations seeing the Aussie Dollar weaker.

Australia: The AUD has been the weakest performer overnight, hitting a low of USD 0.8999, and is currently near 0.9025. The AUD's decline
began after yesterday's Q3 GDP rose by just 0.6% (market forecast 0.8%), with all the growth accounted for by net exports. Domestic demand
remains soft, with consumption up just 0.4% and new business investment up only 1.1%.

Growth in the economy remains skewed towards mining, with mining production rising 2.7% in the quarter, while non-mining output only managed to eke out a 0.2% rise.

While the windback in mining investment expected over the next couple of years will weigh on growth, there are some early signs that other sectors of the economy are starting to pick up, with housing investment likely to strengthen and the lift in consumer confidence signalling somewhat stronger household consumption growth going forward.

Unemployment is forecast to rise to 6.6% and the RBA will maintain a soft easing bias for some time.

Majors: The EUR/USD traded in mirror-image to the USD index, in the absence of Eurozone data surprises. Both the Eurozone Services PMI
(51.7) and preliminary reading of Q3 GDP (0.1%q/q) came in close to expectation. The JPY has strengthened a little further against the USD.
Having been unable to break through the crucial resistance level at 103.70, the USD/JPY now sits at 102.10. It may take further
announcements of easing from the Bank of Japan to inspire the next move in the USD/JPY. Ultimately we see the USD/JPY heading toward
110.00 in 2014.

Economic Calendar
05 DEC AU Trade Balance
UK Bank of England Bank Rate
UK BOE Asset Purchase Target
EC ECB Announces Interest Rates

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