Australian Dollar Outlook - December 4, 2013

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By Christine Gaylican | December 4, 2013 3:07 PM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian dollar has moved above US 0.9100 in preparation for key American economic data

Australia: This morning the Australian dollar is trading at about 0.9138, up from the lows of 0.9057 yesterday made about an hour after the RBA 'no change' rates announcement, remaining at 2.50% and the minimal change in the post-meeting statement.

The RBA looks to be quite comfortably on hold here and should be for many months to come, even though the meeting minutes in two weeks' time are highly likely to show that the Board is not willing to shut off the possibility of reducing rates again.

RBA wording on the currency was identical to November (still 'uncomfortably high') and this helped ensure that the AUD continued to trade heavily in the aftermath of the meeting, just as it had beforehand.

The overnight bounce is no more than a function of generalised US dollar slippage. The currency remained above 0.9100 for the entire US trading session, even though there was no new American data overnight to drive direction.

Majors: There was not much out in Europe save for a strong UK construction PMI and which helped keep GBP aloft. The more interesting move in currencies has been further strength in the NZD and which has seen the AUD/NZD cross push down to a new post-Q4 2008 low of 1.1053.

Helpful to the NZD's cause overnight has been the latest Global Dairy Trade auction which produced a 3.9% (trade-weighted) price rise and leaves dairy prices on average 51.4% up on a year ago.
Economic Calendar
AU AiG Perf of Services Index Nov
US Trade Balance Oct
US US Fed Releases Beige Book

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