Resistance: 1.3751 minor / 1.3772 moderate / 1.3793 minor
Support: 1.3703 moderate / 1.3688 minor / 1.3663 moderate
Euro saw a follow through bear market to its Monday fractal with Tuesdays daily close around its lows. This reinforces the notion of a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off in the weekly charts from May 2011. Among indicators we have daily stochastic heading lower while macd is also poised at a bearish crossover, we are looking at market action as mean reversion with the 21D EMA at 1.3663 as our objective. In intraday charts we have sell signals with stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also bearish for the 4H picture. Hourly charts as well points lower with a new bear cross in stochastic joining a bearish macd. For now we prefer shorting with markets in the process of getting a further down-leg a close under 1.3737 may be seen as a bearish entry though we prefer shorts off 1.3751.
Resistance: 1.6070 moderate / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6017 moderate / 1.5998 moderate / 1.5955 moderate
Tuesday saw a huge sell-off in Cable finally taking out the congestion floor from the previous weeks range play. This pushing GBPUSD well into forming a double top pattern with its trigger around 1.5918, 23.6 Fib retracement of the rally from July lows. Indicators show a confluence of bears as we get a new bear cross in macd while stochastic has pushed into oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears in the 4H picture as stochastic crawls oversold levels while macd is below the zero line and dropping. Hourly charts for their part suggests a new bearish entry with stochastic just crossing lower failing to push overbought in consolidation mode though macd has a new bullish cross. For now we prefer a more cautious approach at joining the bear market waiting for a break of 1.6017, a moderate support. Alternative entry will be a rejection from the daily pivot at 1.6070.
Resistance: 0.9487 moderate / 0.9508 moderate / 0.9544 moderate
Support: 0.9453 minor / 0.9417 moderate / 0.9388 minor
Following Gov. Stevens statement over the currency early Tuesday, we have AUDUSD with a big sell-off almost a bearish marubozu in the daily picture. For the moment we are in the process of pushing under the 34D EMA with prices already in the midst of your daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is also dropping sharply. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is dropping below the zero line. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic looking to push back into oversold areas while macd are technically bullish above the signal line though under zero. At this point we are looking for further weakness a push under 0.9453 could be seen as a bearish entry though, alternatively we may also use a rejection off 0.9487. Note we are looking forward to atleast testing the 55D EMA at around 0.9409 though we have 0.9283 as our objective in the near term.
Resistance: 0.8271 moderate / 0.8313 minor / 0.8331 minor
Support: 0.8228 strong / 0.8191 minor / 0.8157 moderate
Kiwi is at the congestion floor of the September range play, incidentally 38.2 Fib retracement of the August to October rally. Note we view this support as critical a push below it could pave the way for a sharp sell-off if under the context of a bubble imploding in the property market. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is poised to push under the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is at the signal line trying to bottom out. Hourly charts for their part has just seen stochastic push oversold while macd is above the signal line. For now look for a break of the 0.8228 region to trigger a bear market possibly for the psychological 0.8000.
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