Resistance: 1.3537 moderate / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3595 moderate
Support: 1.3512 minor / 1.3494 minor / 1.3473 moderate
Seeing steady gains EURUSD managed to see a big bounce off the 23.6 Fib retarcement level for the September rally with price action holding much of its gains. It appears worries about the US budget and debt ceiling is once again weighing on the greenback. Indicators show daily stochastic continue to ease off while macd’s are heading up. In the 4H level we are seeing confused signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd crossing up while candlesticks has a 3-white soldiers pattern. Hourly charts for their part are also mixed with stochastic heading up and macd’s seeing a bear cross. For now we prefer remaining sidelined perhaps looking for a rejection from the swing highs at 1.3568.
Resistance: 133.09 moderate / 133.50(54) moderate / 133.92 minor
Support: 132.68 moderate / 132.35 minor / 131.85 moderate
Wednesday saw EURJPY with a high wave candle just above the daily EMA lines and a bullish channel support, this after a sharp sell-off in the first half of the week. Among indicators we are seeing a bearish view from daily stochastic and macd’s the latter with a new bear cross and the former now pushing for oversold areas. Note however that we do have bullish EMA lines with prices just above the 21D EMA. In intraday charts we have mixed signals from the hourly levelas stochastic tries to get out of oversold levels while macd is heading lower crossing back under the zeroline. From the 4h level we have a confluence of bears as stochastic see a new bear cross while macd is under zero and the signal-line though flat. Immediate risk calls for a test of 132.68 our weekly lows requiring a close beneath it for further losses. Otherwise base building around the said price may see us look for buys in European trade.
Resistance: 158.35 minor / 158.90 moderate / 159.17 moderate
Support: 157.87 minor / 157.37(45) moderate / 156.99 minor
After all the whipsaw we have a high wave spinning top in GBPJPY as opposing pressures buffeted the pair, half year cycles suggesting a stronger yen while Europe saw risk appetite. From indicators we have a confluence of bears stochastic pushing for oversold levels while macd is also heading lower to the zero line. For the moment we have prices below the pivot after opening the day above it suggesting some bearish risk perhaps similar to yesterday’s Asian weakness. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower even as macd’s cross up. Hourly charts are bearish with macds heading down to zero and stochastic stuck in oversold levels. Immediate risk calls for weakness a retest of yesterdays lows possibly the 21DEMA though we have data coming out of the UK that could potentially lead to a bounce as such we expect limited duration for the bearish tone.
Resistance: 1.6087 minor / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6162 moderate
Support: 1.6062 minor / 16026 moderate / 1.6000 psychological
Cable saw a follow through to Tuesday’s recovery seeing a huge rally yesterday with the daily candle turning into a bullish engulfing. We could argue a bounce-off 23.6 Fib retracement for the three week rally with mean reversion at an end. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic heading back to overbought levels while levels while macd is right above its signal line. From the 4h picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas while macd is also heading up. Hourly charts for their part are bearish with stochastic heading down and a new bearish crossover in macd’s. Note calendars show the UK Final GDP figures up for release at 830GMT with consensus forecast at 0.7%. Considering the strength in previous UK numbers we have an upside risk for the figure which would match our bullish technical scenario. Consider a buy on new highs particularly during market open our objective at 1.6162 swing highs.
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