Resistance: 133.37 moderate / 133.57 moderate / 134.06 moderate
Support: 132.77 moderate / 132.54 moderate / 131.85 moderate
EURJPY saw big sell-off Monday as he equity market relief from last weeks no taper decision begin to erode as the Fed states that it remain on track with its reduction of monetary stimulus. At this point we now have prices nearing a mean reversion objective the 21DEMA’s with stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd’s are poised at a bear cross. Intraday we have stochastic in oversold levels for both hourly and 4H charts while the latter also has a bearish view looking to ease below zero though hourly macd has actually crossed up though under he zero line. For now we prefer looking for shorts off 133.37 continuing the mean reversion play to 132.54.
Resistance: 0.8351 moderate / 0.8390 minor / 0.8435 moderate
Support: 0.8322 minor / 0.8298 minor / 0.8247 moderate
Kiwi is currently breaking lower possibly defining a medium term top after Friday’s fractal pattern and Mondays indecision. Note we appear to have triggered mean reversion with the current bearish breakout with a big gap between prices and EMA lines, and indicators now showing a bearish divergence in daily stochastic and topping off in macd’s. From the lower time frames we are seeing signs of a build up of bearish views as both 4H and hourly indicators show a confluence of bears even as price action shows an increase in the size of the bearish real body. For now look for shorts from under 0.8351 our moderate resistance a former congestion floor. Projected lows calls for merely an 0.8281 target though given the penchant of sudden extreme movement in Kiwi we look forward to seeing 0.8247 the previous bullish breakout point.
Resistance: 1330.05 moderate / 1339.76 minor / 1348.00 moderate
Support: 1320.47 minor / 1313.36 minor / 1306.91 moderate
Monday saw a hammer at the close in Gold this as attempts at a follow through to Friday’s sell-off could not stay near the lows for a long tail in the daily candle. From indicators we have daily stochastic heading lower in line with a bearish macd that’s already below the zero line. Note we have new dead crosses among the daily EMAs reinforcing the idea that we now have a bearish trend in the big picture. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals as 4H indicators has stochastic with a new bearish crossover while macd is also dropping. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading for overbought areas and macd also pushing up. Given the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined but the long tail and a hammer along with hourly buys suggests a break of 1330.05 could see a run for the EMA lines, 1348.00.
Resistance: 0.9438 moderate / 0.9458 minor / 0.9484 moderate
Support: 0.9378 moderate / 0.9337 minor / 0.9304 minor
At the close we have AUDUSD giving a good chunk of its gains to see a long wick and a spinning top for a daily candle. Note it appears that mean reversion from end of last week is still around with monday’s price action essentially a breather. Indicators has daily stochastic with a bearish divergence while macd is topping off nearing its own bearish crossover. From the 4H picture we have now formed a descending triangle, double top, while indicators show a confluence of bears with macd nearing zero and stochastic midway to oversold areas. Hourly indicators already has stochastic oversold and macd dropping through the zero line. For now we find ourselves midway to our immediate moderate support at 0.9378. A close below the said price may be seen as a bearish entry for 0.9335 possibly 0.9285. Alternative entry will be coming off the hypotenuse of your descending triangle in 4H charts. Take too long to break lower and we will look for base building above 0.9378.
Resistance: 1.3500 moderate / 1.3538 minor / 1.3568 moderate
Support: 1.3469 moderate / 1.34333 minor / 1.3391 moderate
Euro eventually closed near its lows for a bearish sen candle following a break of an intraday type descending triangle resolving the indecision that markets have had since Wednesday’s rally. It appears we may have made a near term top Thursday. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off over bought levels with a bearish divergence while macd is topping off. Given the huge gap between prices and the EMA lines we may have started a mean reversion play. From the 4H we are seeing mixed signals as 4H stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd continues to drop. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic pointing up and macd opening higher. For now we prefer remaining sideline though the longer we stay under 1.3500 the more we will look for shorts particularly at the open of European markets. A bearish fractal or a bearish engulfing in the hourly charts just below the said price can be seen as an entry signal for a move to the 38.2 Fib retracement level, 1.3391.
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