Resistance: 1.3535 minor / 1.3568 moderate / 1.3596 minor
Support: 1.3500 psychological / 1.3451 minor / 1.3383 minor
A day after the Fed pulled back from the taper story we have EURUSD failing to hold in its attempts at a follow through rally the daily candles now showing a long wick for a shooting star. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought areas while macd is also pushing up though the huge gap between prices and the EMA lines suggests we have pressure for mean reversion. In the lower time frames we have the hourly charts with a bearish macd while stochastic is trying to cross lower, 4H charts for their part has macd’s flat above the signal though stochastic is at risk of crossing higher. Price action itself is very mixed with spinning tops in the hourly charts. Given the big rally for the week, mixed intraday charts and this being Friday along with our bare calendar we expect to see some pullback, consider shorts at the break of 1.3500.
Resistance: 0.9464 moderate / 0.9483 minor / 0.9500 psychological
Support: 0.9425 minor / 0.9387 moderate / 0.9365 minor
Aussy saw a pull back in New York markets after the earlier consolidation following the strong rally in off the FOMC’s decision to hold-off any taper in the QE program. From indicators we have a bearish divergence forming out of stochastic while daily macd is heading up, prices for the moment are just under the daily pivot while EMA lines see more golden crosses. In thr 4h level we have mixed signals with stochastic trying to come off oversold levels while macd has a new bear cross and candlesticks see attempts to breakthrough the previous spinning top highs. Hourly charts has a bullish stochastic quickly heading for overbought levels while macd is bottoming out. Consider buys on a push back up above the daily pivot at 0.9464 for a rally toward the psychological 0.9500 though we are looking to see our inverted head and should target at 0.9580.
Resistance: 135.00 psychological / 135.44 moderate / 136.10 minor
Support: 134.45 minor / 134.22 moderate / 134.00 moderate
Thursday saw the delayed response by Yen pairs to the FOMC’s decision for a status quo on the QE program. EURJPY took the lead on the extent of the rally as USDJPY’s finally managed to move up in tandem with the European equity rally. Indicators now have stochastic in overbought levels for EURJPY while macd is also heading up. Note we are now entering levels last seen in 2010. In intraday charts we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels while macd is rallying up in the 4H picture. hourly charts for their pat has stochastic just crossing lower and macd’s dropping as well. Note we appear to be forming a double top in hourly charts with the trigger at 134.22 23.6 fib retracement of the FOMC driven rally. For now we prefer remaining sidelined until the open of Europe, looking for shorts under 134.22.
Resistance: 1368.27 minor / 1373.77 moderate / 1382.08 moderate
Support: 1359.18 moderate / 1354.00 minor / 1349.95 moderate
Thursday saw gold a with a modest range play staying above the daily EMA lines following Wednesday bullish break though seeing little progress, stuck on a range play post FOMC announcement. Note we have XAUUSD hitting the bearish trendline from August 28 highs, while the main reason for Gold’s prior rally has dissipated, risk of a Syrain confrontation. indicator wise we have daily stochastic overbought and macd seeing a new bulish crossover. From the lower time frames we have macd’s topping off while stochastic is poised to push oversold. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Given the fundamental picture and elevated prices we prefer looking for shorts with a drop under 1359.18 triggering a pullback immediate object the 1350 area.
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