Resistance: 1.3128 minor / 1.3150 moderate / 1.3191 moderate
Support: 1.3103 moderate / 1.3078 moderate / 1.3048 moderate
Following a pull back to the 3-week double top trigger Wednesday, we have EURUSD resuming its bear market with Thursdays close just above the 50 fib retracement level of our rally from July. Daily indicators has macd’s pushing through the zero-line for both main and signal line with stochastic looking to ease back-under the 20 mark after taking a quick peek out of oversold areas. Note we have dead crosses forming among the daily EMA’s. Intraday we are seeing a mixed picture, 4H stochastic is oversold and macd’s are bearish beneath the zero mark. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish stochastic and a new bullish crossover in macd. Given the immediate support we appear to be looking for a technical bounce for the moment though a strong NFP read from the US will have us looking for a sell-off to the psychological 1.3000 area.
Resistance: 131.50 moderate / 131.97 moderate / 132.41 moderate
Support: 131.03 moderate / 130.73 minor / 130.51 moderate
EURJPY pulled back Thursday as we finally saw EURUSD breaking lower on strong US jobs numbers and a more cautious take by the ECB to recent strength in Eurozone economic numbers. Daily indicators has a mixed view with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd has a bullish cross. Note that our price charts are forming a double-top with-in a double top with and even wider weekly scales double top. From the lower time-frames we are seeing a confluence of bears, in 4H charts stochastic is looking to push into oversold areas while macd has anew bearish crossover. Hourly charts has the macd easing further beneath the zero line and stochastic dropping. Immediate risk is for further weakness as we try to form a top in the big picture. Look for a close below yesterdays lows at 131.03 as a possible entry point for new shorts.
Resistance: 100.37 moderate / 100.62 minor / 100.86 moderate
Support: 99.96 moderate / 99.61 moderate / 99.24 moderate
With a broadly firmer dollar we have USDJPY seeing new highs for the week pushing on following the invalidation of Tuesday’s high wave spinning top as markets look for a strong us jobs figure. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas while macd is also pushing higher even as daily EMA lines see golden crosses. In the 4H picture we have stochastic overbought while macd is flat and the price chart shows indecision. Hourly charts for the moment has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk appears to be for a pullback as limited position squaring ahead of possibly volatile NFP release could be expected. A strong read later could bring forward the tapering off risk in US QE. We prefer looking for buys on dips to the 99.60(71) region S1 in pivots.
Resistance: 1377.80 moderate / 1384.35 moderate / 1391.07 moderate
Support: 1365.25 minor / 1356.41 moderate / 1347.09 moderate
Gold managed to trigger a daily head and shoulder pattern Thursday following a good read in he US claimant count and with strong non-manufacturing PMI’s. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is dropping though prices are inside the EMA lines. From the lower time-frames we have 4H stochastic in oversold areas while macd is heading down. Hourly charts however are looking for a technical bounce as stochastic is poised to push overbought. At this point immediate risk is for a correction though the overall view for gold suggests vulnerability as we face a a potentially strong US jobs number.
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