Resistance: 1.5648 moderate / 1.5683 moderate / 1.5716 minor
Support: 1.5603 moderate / 1.575 moderate / 1.5534 minor
Cable charts has us at the weeks congestion floor as attempts to push for the swing highs at 1.5749 were abandoned with the FOMC minutes signaling the Fed was on track for tapering off. Indicators show stochastic coming off overbought areas and macds at risk of a bar cross. Given the sharp turnaround yesterday mean reversion will be a developing theme with our large gap from the daily EMA lines. From the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic just pushing oversold as macd’s drop. Hourly charts are equally bearish with stochastic in oversold areas while macd is also dropping. Immediate risk calls for a bearish breakout a close under 1.5601 signalling that we have mean reversion to the daily EMA’s the 21D EMA at 1.5502, just around psychological levels.
Resistance: 1.3359 moderate / 1.3385 minor / 1.3416 moderate
Support: 1.3308 moderate / 1.3279 minor / 1.3238 moderate
EURUSD has a ‘dark cloud cover’ in daily charts suggesting our run for highs may be over with a false breakout of the May highs at 1.3416. Daily indicators has macd just under the signal line while stochastic is heading lower having failed to even see overbought levels. note we have prices just above the daily EMA lines though previous pullbacks saw us crashing through. From intraday charts we are seeing sell signals the 4H picture showing stochastic with a new push to oversold levels and macd poised to go under the zero-line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also dropping. For now we are looking for follow through weakness preferring a sell on rallies to the 1.3359(67)resistance area. Note the key thing going forward will be the European equity open should they signal a global rout we would call the weeks highs as a medium term top.
Resistance: 0.8985(96) moderate / 0.9024 minor / 0.9057 moderate
Support: 0.8935(40) moderate / 0.8906 minor / 0.8865 minor
Wednesday saw AUDUSD with a follow through to its double top breakout in the daily charts with a broadly firmer dollar pushing things along. Among indicators we have the daily stochasticjust pushing oversold while macd has also crossed lower remaining below the zeroline. This signals a resumption of our bear market the eventual objective taking out swing lows at 0.8847. In the lower timeframes we are seeing a confluence of bears in hourly and 4-hour indicators we have stochastic oversold in both time-frames while macd is also below zero and dropping for both. Going forward our focus will be on getting further weakness as a slowdown in Australia and in China also puts the currency under pressure. We have the recipe needed for Aussy to ease down to the historical norms over the next few weeks.
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