Resistance: 97.87 minor / 98.13 moderate / 98.36 moderate
Support: 97.48 minor / 97.18 minor / 96.85 moderate
After Fridays bounce we have USDJPY just under the daily EMA lines with opening the week with a small bullish gap trying to takeout the 50 Fib area of the August down swing. Daily indicators has macd’s heading up though still under the zeroline while stochastic is at risk of a bullish crossover. In the lower time-frames we have stochastic heading for overbought levels in 4h charts while macd is in the process of crossing up. Hourly charts has stochastic looking to push overbought, this as macd’s are poised to go through the zeroline. Earlier figures from Japan were a cause for concern with the trade shortfall worsening reading -0.94 Trillion Yen with previous numbers also revised lower. Immediate risk calls for a bullish breakout with a close above 97.87 as our trigger though we expect limited ranges and possible shorts from 98.36, the 61.8 Fib.
Resistance: 130.44 moderate / 130.71 minor / 131.11 moderate
Support: 129.94 moderate / 129.55 moderate / 129.21 minor
The past week saw EURJPY stuck in a ranging market with as attempt to push higher kept getting rejected from the bearish trendline of our daily lower highs from the July 24 peak. Daily indicators show mixed signals with stochastic heading down and macd’s bullish though waiting for an push up through the zeroline. Note we have the daily EMA lines flattening out with price action underscoring the indecisive market. From the 4H level we have a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold areas and macd’s just under the signal line. Hourly charts has a new bear cross in stochastic following the earlier rejection from the 61.8 Fib at 130.44 and a break of the daily pivot. Given these look for a close under 129.94 as a trigger for more shorts. Potentially we could be seeing the start of bear market heading for 127.93 the 61.8 fib retracement level.
Resistance: 1.5653 moderate / 1.5678 moderate / 1.5712 minor
Support: 1.5603 moderate / 1.5574 moderate / 1.5534 minor
Friday was consolidation day in Cable following a sharp rally Thursday. Daily indicators now has stochastic crawling in overbought levels while macd is above the signal line and the zero mark. At the moment we appear set to continue our push for the swing highs at 1.5750 though the growing gap between prices and the daily EMA lines is a cause for concern. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals following Friday’s consolidation as stochastic see a new bullish cross from the 4H picture while macd also has a new bear cross. hourly charts are similarly mixed with a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. Consider Cable as a possible straddle ona close outside of R1 and S1, 1.5653 and 1.5603 respectively. Note we are equally willing to look for buys on a hammer or dragonfly doji with tails sticking under 1.5603.
Resistance: 0.9221 moderate / 0.9257 minor / 0.9297 strong
Support: 0.9176 moderate / 0.9138 moderate / 0.9107 minor
Friday saw Aussy surging back up to the previous swing highs as commodity markets also surged across the board. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with stochastic just pushing higher into overbought levels while macds cross the zeroline up. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels while macd is flat above the zeroline. Hourly charts however are seeing a new confluence of bears with stochastic just crossing lower and macd’s heading down. Ahead we have Aussy data to watch out for New Motor Vehicle Sales for July though absent a consensus forecast we will rely on textbook interpretation a bad read an excuse for Aussy weakness. For now given Australian fundies and monetary policy we prefer looking for shorts off the 0.9220 region with daily charts again forming a possible double top.
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