Commodities Guru Jim Rogers Warns Gold Price Could Dip to $900/Ounce
By Vittorio Hernandez | July 9, 2013 8:51 AM EST
The worse has not yet come for the gold market. Commodities expert Jim Rogers warned that the price of the yellow metal could fall to $900 an ounce.
When gold was trading at $1,900 in the fall of 2011, Mr Rogers correctly forecast the price of the safe haven would go down to $1,200. It did on June 27.
He joins another gold expert, Nouriel Roubini, in foreseeing gold will further crash.
Mr Rogers explained to Business Insider that the basis of his accurate forecast was intuition since it has been up for 11 to 12 consecutive years.
"I don't know any asset that gone up 12 years without a down year, and gold needed and deserved a correction," he said, pointing out that the predicted price then of $1,2000 was within the usual 35 to 40 per cent correction.
He said the process of making a complicated bottom for gold could take a longer period and could last up to a year or two. While Mr Rogers is not buying gold, he is neither selling any gold or silver, but rather watching and expecting a new low price.
Despite his correct prediction then, the commodities guru refuses to identify a date when would the yellow metal hit bottom. "I wish I was that smart. I don't really know it could happen before 2014 or 2015, but the bull market's not over."
He added that gold will eventually create new highs, explaining that the 12-year run was driven by a 20-year bear market. Mr Rogers pointed out that gold began to collapse in 1980 and went down for the next two decades which caused investors to sell their gold holdings and mines to close and then reopen to establish the foundation for a nice, long bull market.
He added 50 per cent corrections are quite normal in markets and what is not normal is a 12-year bull run.
The expert said mines would likely be producing the yellow metal below production cost for some time because it cost money to open a gold mine, which explains why miners are reluctant to close mines in a bear market.
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