Retail sales and a consumer sentiment survey in the United States plus a Bank of Japan statement on its monetary policy lead this week's list of key economic reports.
Last week's closely watched U.S. nonfarm payroll report for May, which came in at a slightly better-than-expected 175,000 was ambivalent, with something for the pessimists and the optimists. “The underlying trends point toward a stable, not upward moving, labor market and a slow-growth economy,” according to Briefing.com. “Specifically, the increase in jobs was not enough to cause a sizable jump in income levels.”
The fact that U.S. job creation remains beneath the 200,000 that must be created each month to lower unemployment will strain retail sales. That strain may emerge in this week's retail sales report.
Consumer sentiment surged in May to its highest level in nearly six years on rising real estate values and a strengthening stock market. The fact that 420,000 Americans also entered the labor force also signaled optimism about finding work.
If equities and property values continue showing strength, this week's June consumer sentiment number could be strong. However, if both this week's U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment disappoint, it could help vindicate the pessimists.
Despite the best efforts of Japan's new leadership the yen surged last week against the dollar, precisely what Tokyo does not want. Investors and analysts will be watching for signs the Bank of Japan will maintain its present level of monetary easing or double down on stimulus initiatives.
The flow of economic, business and financial news from China will be quiet Monday through Wednesday as the nation observes a holiday.
Below are entries on the economic calendar June 10-14. All times listed are EDT.
Japan – Bank of Japan will reveal any changes in its monetary policies, which have recently become dramatically more accommodative.
7:30 a.m. – National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for May. In April the index rose 2.6 points to 92.1 on an improving economic outlook, better sales expectations and stronger hiring plans.
10 a.m. – Economists expect wholesale inventories to have increased by 0.2 percent in April. In March wholesale inventories climbed 0.4 percent.
Germany – The German Federal Constitutional Court will announce a ruling on the constitutionality of the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions policy. It is widely expected that the court will approve the policy.
U.K. – British manufacturing production in April is expected to have been flat after rising 1.1 percent in March.
7 a.m. – Weekly mortgage applications for the seven days ending June 8, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. In the prior week applications fell 11.5 percent.
U.K. – British unemployment for May will have fallen about 6.8 percent, analysts estimate.
Australia – Unemployment in May is expected to have risen to 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent.
Euro zone – Analysts expect industrial production to slide in April 1.7 percent compared to the year-earlier month.
8:30 a.m. – Weekly jobless claims for the seven days ended June 8 are 350,000, slightly higher the the previous week's level.
8:30 a.m. – Retail sales for May are expected to post a healthy gain of 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent over the level of April when retail sales edged higher by a mere 0.1 percent.
8:30 a.m. – Economists forecast import prices for May to be unchanged, while export prices are expected to be down fractionally. The figures are expected to reinforce the view that inflation is no threat to the U.S. economy.
10 a.m. – The April business inventories are expected to be up between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, after remaining unchanged in both February and March.
Germany – Wholesale price index for May.
8:30 a.m. – The producer price index, which gauges the prices domestic producers of goods and services receive, for May is expected to edge up 0.2 percent, after falling 0.7 percent in April and 0.6 percent in March.
9:15 a.m. – Economists forecast industrial production, which offers a window into how much of existing manufacturing, mining and utility capacity is being used, for May should edge up between 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, on a month-over-month basis.
9:55 a.m. – The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to be between 83 and 84.5 for June.
Canada – Manufacturing sales in April are expected to post their first gain in four months with a 0.1 percent increase.
Euro zone – First-quarter employment.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Briefing.com, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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