Economist Nouriel Roubini Forecast Gold Prices to Plummet to $1,000 Before End of 2015
By Vittorio Hernandez | June 3, 2013 8:51 AM EST
Economist Nouriel Roubini, in a fearless forecast on Project Syndicate, projected that the price of gold would likely plummet to about $1,000 before the end of 2015.
He attributed the likely further plunge of gold prices to:
1. Gold spiking during extreme crises, but the crises days are now over.
2. A risk of high inflation is the period that gold does well.
3. Because of the recovering economy, investors are not interested in holdings that pay no dividends.
4. The rise in real interest rate which kills gold.
5. Governments with piles of debt, such as Cyprus, are dumping their gold.
6. American right-wing fanatics juiced gold, but those days are over.
Mr Roubini, a professor at the Stern School of Business in New York University and senior economist for International Affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, pointed out that gold - which was priced at $800 per ounce in early 2009 and hit beyond $1,900 in the fall of 2011 - had all the features of a bubble.
"And now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating," he wrote.
Citing economist John Maynard Keynes, Mr Roubini said that gold will remain a barbarous relic with no intrinsic value and mainly used as a hedge against "mostly irrational fear and panic."
"While gold prices may temporarily move higher in the next few years, they will be very volatile and will trend lower over time as the global economy mends itself. The gold rush is over," he concluded.
However, one exception to that rule are Indians, known for the extreme love for the yellow metal, prompting Indian Finance Minister P Chidambaram to ask last week his countrymen to contain their uncontrolled passions for gold.
This obsession for gold is being blamed for the spiraling out of control in the last few years of the country's current account deficit to unsustainable levels with India's gold imports estimated to be between 300 and 400 tonnes in the September quarter, up 200 per cent compared to 12 months ago.
Because of this development, the Indian government is considering restrictions on gold imports.
To contact the editor, e-mail: