Chinese Accused Of Inflating Trade Surplus Tenfold
May 21, 2013 12:33 PM EST
China’s trade surplus is only a tenth of the $61 billion reported by the government so far this year after accounting for fake transactions used to disguise hot-money inflows, Bank of America Corp. said Monday.
The true surplus is about $6 billion, Lu Ting, Bank of America’s head of Greater China economics in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg. That would be the smallest figure for the January-April period since a $10.8 billion deficit in 2004.
Lu’s calculations indicate that the surplus shrank instead of tripling from a year earlier, a sign that global demand is restraining rather than boosting the Chinese economy. Bank of America’s estimate underscores the enormity of possible discrepancies in the trade data, which has been disputed by analysts for four months, and broader skepticism about Chinese statistics from GDP to jobs.
“Growth is weak in China now -- the overstated export growth means the real growth is slightly weaker,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “We are expecting to see a fairly big drop in export growth in the coming months” as regulators crack down on so-called hot-money inflows, he added.
Beijing reported a trade surplus of $18.8 billion for the first four months of 2012.
Lu said the gimmicks may have included exports and imports that enabled money flows for people engaged in arbitrage between the onshore and offshore exchange rates for the yuan. He speculated that gold shipments in and out of Hong Kong have been for this purpose, since valuable goods with low transportation costs are “ideal channels” for hot money flows.
To contact the editor, e-mail:
Most Popular Slideshows
Join the Conversation
- Nokia Lumia 730 v. Sharp Aquos Crystal – Specifications, Features And Price Showdown
- Apple iPhone 6 Plus vs Motorola Droid Turbo: Comparsion On Processor, Software And Battery
- Australia Special Forces Await 'Delayed' Iraqi Visas Before Joining ISIS Fight
- ISIS Has Been Equipped With Advanced Anti-Aircraft Missiles
- Samsung Galaxy Note 4 vs Motorola Droid Turbo – S-Pen Is Note’s 4 USP But Droid Turbo Can Outshine With Larger Battery
- 8 Important Things to Consider Before Buying or Upgrading to iPad Air 2
- Canada’s Official ISIS Mission Starts On Weekend; Kuwait Uneasy