Apple iPhone 5 Sequels iPhone 5S And iPhone 6 Will Release In June And September 2013, Says Analyst
By Dave Smith | March 31, 2013 3:20 AM EST
Apple will release two iPhone 5 successors -- the security-laden iPhone 5S and the cheaper-made iPhone 6 -- in 2013, if the latest prediction from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster turns out to be true.
On Tuesday, the vocal Wall Street analyst released a note (via MacRumors) that pegged the iPhone 5S release date in June, and a release date for the low-cost iPhone 6 in September.
"We continue to believe Apple will have a cheaper phone product to address the emerging markets," Munster said in his note. "In recent public comments, Tim Cook noted that the original iPod cost $399 and eventually the company released a $49 iPod Shuffle which addressed a broader market. We believe Apple will likely introduce a cheaper device in the September quarter."
Munster believes the true iPhone 5 successor, the iPhone 5S, will release with just a few important upgrades to its processors and camera infrastructure, with "an outside chance" the device will feature a near-field communication (NFC) chip for the first time; if NFC isn't included with the iPhone 5S, Munster believes the feature is more likely to release inside the iPhone 6.
Given the multitude of NFC-related patents in Apple's arsenal, it would make sense for a future iPhone -- either the iPhone 5S, iPhone 6, or a phone beyond those two -- to release with an NFC chip, which would allow the phone to perform secure transactions like file sharing even credit card payments, negating the need to carry around physical credit cards.
Gene Munster has had a mixed track record at best when it comes to Apple rumors. Year after year, the analyst has been bullish on Apple's purported intentions to build an actual television set, which we still have no reason to believe is ever coming. And despite how vocal he is about Apple products, many don't believe his information stacks up a majority of the time, so like all iPhone-related rumors, this must be taken with a grain of salt.
All that said, Munster's predictions of an iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 dual release date schedule in 2013 lines up with previous reports about the alleged smartphones. After Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty pegged a dual release date for the iPhone 5S and "low-cost iPhone 6" in 2013, Kirk Yang from Barclays (via Taiwan's Commercial Times) released a similar note saying Apple is indeed preparing to release both the iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 in the same period, between August and September of this year.
Yang believes Apple will release both the iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 in two models each: One model will feature the standard support for frequency-division duplexing (FDD) technology, which is used by most of the world's carriers, but another model is said to finally support the unique time-division duplexing (TDD) technology used by China Mobile (NYSE:CHL), the largest telecommunications carrier in the world.
This report makes a great deal of sense, considering Apple's reported efforts over the past several years to woo China Mobile into introducing the iPhone on its platform. With 703 million active subscribers, Apple badly wants to strike a deal with the carrier -- on Jan. 10, Apple CEO Tim Cook even stopped by China Mobile headquarters to meet with company chairman Xi Guohua, looking to "discuss matters of cooperation."
Yang's report says Foxconn will work on three models of the iPhone 5 successor, while Pegatron has already received orders to build the lower-cost TD-LTE-capable iPhone 6. Samsung's flagship smartphone for 2013, the Galaxy S4, will be support TD-LTE.
Apple is still reportedly crunching the numbers to estimate how much the cheaper iPhone 6 might cut into iPhone 5S sales. The iPhone 5S vs. iPhone 6 predicament is not dissimilar from the iPad vs. iPad Mini predicament, which Apple is still trying to figure out, as iPad Mini sales continue to cannibalize sales of its larger, more expensive sibling.
If these reports weren't enough, one of the most accurate analysts in the business -- KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who correctly pegged Apple's entire product roadmap in 2012 -- believes Apple will indeed release both the iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 in the third quarter of 2013, which would be right between June and September.
There are more reasons why Apple should simultaneously release the iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 in 2013 than against: With analysts and investors concerned with Apple's diminishing share price, and the constant threat of rivals' releasing better and better smartphones each year, the pressure is on Apple to stay competitive: Releasing a low-priced iPhone 6 to attack those emerging markets might be the key.
Even though Apple wants to make greater inroads in China, the price of the current iPhone 5 is simply too steep in the country.
“One of our sources claims that Apple’s iPhone prices remain too high for most mainland Chinese customers -- the iPhone 5 hardware alone starts at $849 there, versus the iPhone 4 at $500, in a country where the average annual salary is around $3,000 per person,” iLounge editor-in-chief Jeremy Horwitz wrote in January. “The source has said that mainland Chinese iPhone 5 sales are already tapering off as a result of the pricing, which is higher than in Hong Kong. A budget iPhone model would help sales in populous but underdeveloped countries to grow.”
With the advent of cheaper, smaller, and more power-efficient chipsets, Apple can certainly afford to release an entry-level to midrange smartphone in addition to its current iPhone model -- either one that's larger, like the Samsung Galaxy S3, or a smaller iPhone Nano -- to appeal to consumers who can’t quite afford Apple’s most popular product, including many in China and India.
Reports of Apple's desire to build multiple iPhone models to aim at multiple markets have been echoed on Wall Street. On Jan. 2, Topeka Capital Markets analyst Brian White said Apple will likely release its iPhone 5 follow-up in more colors and screen sizes, implying that Apple might sell an iPhone 5S or iPhone 6 that's smaller or larger than the current iPhone 5 or even the previous-generation iPhone 4S or 4 units.
"Although Apple offers a 4-inch screen on the iPhone 5 and a 3.5-inch screen on the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4, the company has never offered multiple screen sizes for a single model," White said. "We believe this is about to change with the next iPhone offering different screen sizes that we believe will allow Apple to better bifurcate the market and expand its reach."
Considering Apple’s urgency to strike a deal with China Mobile, as well as the growing number of rumors pointing to a 2013 release date for an iPhone 6 that would be compatible with the popular carrier, it’s likely we could see both the iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 release worldwide this year.
iPhone 5S: What Will It Look Like?
Most reports say the iPhone 5S will look nearly identical to the iPhone 5, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Two independent reports -- one from iLounge editor-in-chief Jeremy Horwitz, and one from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo -- said the iPhone 5S processor will release with an Apple-built A7 chip, but Apple will make major additions to the iPhone's camera and flash -- “perhaps featuring Sony’s 13-megapixel sensor,” according to Horwitz.
But analysts say the iPhone 5S will feature much more than just new processors: One of the most talked-about (and likely) rumors we've heard involves the iPhone's signature home button, which is said to introduce an integrated fingerprint sensor for the next-generation, replacing the need for usernames and passwords on the phone.
A fingerprint sensor makes great logical sense for an iPhone 5S feature: Unlike other Android-based smartphones with multiple buttons at the bottom, the iPhone has always had only one mechanical button on its face, which would make it exceedingly simple and intuitive for users to locate and use this feature. Furthermore, given Apple’s urgency to acquire Florida-based AuthenTec last July (as noted in the company’s own filing to the SEC), there’s an excellent chance that we’ll see this unique feature in a soon-to-be-released iPhone -- hopefully the iPhone 5S or 6.
iPhone 6: What Will It Look Like?
Horwitz detailed last month what he called the "budget iPhone 5," which will allegedly look like the iPhone 5, but feature several new design elements and tweaks.
“Yes, it will be made substantially from plastic,” Horwitz wrote, echoing an earlier DigiTimes report that said the iPhone 5S or 6 would feature a hybrid chassis made of both plastic and metal. “No, it won’t just be a Retina- and Lightning-equipped refresh of the iPhone 3G or 3GS, Apple’s last plastic iPhones, nor will it look just like an all-plastic version of the iPhone 5. This new model is actually a cross between the iPhone 5, the fifth-generation iPod touch, and -- wait for it -- the iPod classic. Yes, really. It will have a 4” screen, like the iPhone 5, a bottom like the latest iPod touch and a shape that’s most similar to the iPod classic.”
The original DigiTimes report about the iPhone 6 said the low-cost iPhone’s internal parts could “be seen from the outside through a special design." If this rumor is accurate, the finished design for the iPhone 6 might look like an iPhone 5 with the plastic enclosure of the iPhone 3GS mixed with the 1998 Bondi blue iMac, which was characterized by its brightly colored, translucent plastic casing, letting users see the innards of their desktop computers for the first time.
Horwitz believes the low-cost iPhone 6 will feature specifications nearly identical to those of the iPhone 5, but will be "a half-millimeter taller and a half-millimeter wider," as well as a full millimeter thicker. While these changes are minimal, Horwitz noted the biggest design change in the iPhone 6 will be the curves.
“Apple’s budget housing looks closest to the iPod classic in shape, though not in materials,” Horwitz said. “Unlike the plastic iPhone 3G/3GS, which featured soft curves on all sides, the budget iPhone’s curves start and end at flat surfaces, so each side and the back are flat. This seems like a trivial change, until you realize that it allows Apple to use flat rather than curve-matched parts: the right side has a flat, centered SIM card tray just like the iPhone 5’s, while all of the buttons and ports are on flat rather than curved surfaces. A flat-backed iPhone won’t rock on a flat surface when it vibrates, either.”
The dimensions of the iPhone 6 will resemble those of the most recently-released iPod touch, with similar locations for the camera, microphone, and rear flash, according to Horwitz. The bottom microphone, headphone jack, Lightning dock, and speaker are in the same locations as in the iPhone 5, but the new iPhone 6 is said to have an extra microphone on the bottom, as well as four individual holes for the speaker grill, rather than the 26 speaker holes at the bottom of the iPhone 5.
“In summary, the budget iPhone will look a lot like an iPhone 5 from the front, an iPod classic from the side, and an iPod touch 5G on the bottom -- only made from plastic rather than glass or metal,” Horwitz concluded. “It won’t make any bold departures from past Apple designs, but then, it’s supposed to be an inexpensive iPhone and achieves that goal pretty much as expected.”
iPhone 5S and iPhone 6: Features You'll See In Both Phones?
While the iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 are aiming at two different crowds, it's likely that both phones could release with the same display technology. Several reports claim Apple is investing a great deal of time, energy, and money on display panels for its next-gen iPhones.
A Jan. 3 report by the China Times said Apple might switch to a "Touch On Display" panel currently in development at one of the company's suppliers, Taiwan-based Innolux Corp. (TPE:3481), which has reportedly licensed Sharp's proprietary IGZO display technology.
Whether or not Apple specifically chooses Innolux to make screens for the next iPhone, however, the company will most likely feature Sharp's ultrathin IGZO display technology in its next iPhone -- the iPhone 5S, iPhone 6, or both.
In late December, Asymco analyst Horace Dediu and DigiTimes both mentioned Apple’s alleged investment in the ultrathin IGZO displays produced by Sharp, predicting the inclusion of the technology in Apple’s next batch of iOS devices, including iPhones and iPads. Dediu also pointed to Apple’s recent $2.3 billion investment in “product tooling, manufacturing process equipment, and infrastructure,” believing the cash was used to help bail out Sharp, which had been in financial straits last year. Sharp is reportedly going “all in” on IGZO technology, so it’s possible Apple saved Sharp to leverage its investment in the next generation of displays.
As noted by Tom's Hardware, the IGZO display is not only thin and tough, but also can handle even higher screen densities than Apple’s Retina display, which is visually stunning on its own. IGZO displays can reportedly handle display densities north of 330 ppi: In comparison, the new iPad 4 can only achieve 264 ppi.
One of the advantages of IGZO display technology is its lower power consumption. Most Apple products, from the iPhone 5 to the iPad 4, require cartoonishly big batteries to achieve just eight hours of power -- this is because current-gen Retina displays are extremely power-hungry. If Apple wanted its iPhone 6 not only to last longer during the day but also to charge faster when plugged in, IGZO seems to be the way to go for the next generation of iOS devices.
Apple is facing stiffening competition from its rivals at Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (KRX:005935), Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), and even the Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), so the Cupertino, Calif.-based company will need to pull out all the stops for its iPhone 5 successor, as well as for the cheaper iPhone 6, as it seeks to keep customer interest in an increasingly crowded marketplace.
Apple has set its own bar pretty high: The company sold 47.8 million iPhones and 22.9 million iPads in its fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 29.
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