Asian Session Notes: Cable and Aussy are looking bullish we are risk averse overall

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0445 minor / 1.0475 moderate / 1.0494 moderate

Support: 1.0413 moderate / 1.0397 minor / 1.0369 minor

Aussy finally trigger its daily pennant with the break pushing past intraday targets closing Thursday well above the 1.0413 moderate resistance then. Daily indicators has nacd’s ointing up with stochastic poised to reenter overbought levels getting dragged into a bullish cross by the breakout. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is pushing up with candlesticks showing a shooting star, for a possible excuse to pullback to 1.0413. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd heading up. Given that we have a moderate support and broke out of a pennant we prefer a scaled entry, look for buys off 1.0413 and possibly from the previous pennant resistance line.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5189 moderate / 1.2511 moderate / 1.5227 moderate

Support: 1.5164 minor / 1.5125 minor / 1.5086 moderate

Cable saw us close just under the breakout point of a daily flag pattern, though holding on to its gains suggesting a focus on getting a follow through in today’s trade. For the moment prices are beneath the 34D EMA. Daily indicators has macd heading up while stochastic has a new bullish cross looking to reenter overbought areas. From the 4H picture we have a rising macd and stochastic looking for a bullish cross. Hourly charts for their part has a flat macd with stochastic rising. Immediate calls for a trigger of the daily flag pattern, though entry preferable should be only above 34D EMA at 1.5211. Pattern target call for a bounce to 1.5473. Note after a 1500 pip sell-off since January the change in tone from the BoE and potential haven flows from Europe will likely see Cable bouncing for a pullback, 38.2 Fib of that 3-month sell-off at 1.5397.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2929 moderate / 1.2975 moderate / 1.3006 moderate

Support: 1.2876 strong / 1.2841 minor / 1.2800 moderate

After the sharp reversal from the false break of 1.2876, 50 Fib level of the recovery from 2012 lows we seem to have Euro in a mixed trade for now with Cypriot issues weighing though no longer the big scary threat from the weeks open. At this point we have prices between significant support and resistance levels, the immediate support 1.2876. Among indicator we have macd flat from the daily to 4H and hourly charts. Stochastic is mixed across the time-frames with daily’s coming off oversold levels while the 4H stochastic is heading down and hourly sharply pointing up. Given the wait for a resolution on Cypriot issues and the strength of the support and resistance we suggests looking for a range play with buys off 1.286 and shorts from under 1.2975.

USDJPY

Resistance: 95.13 moderate / 95.38 minor / 95.70 moderate

Support: 94.81 moderate / 94.47 moderate / 94.13 strong

Thursday’s sell-off has USDJPY just above the 21D EMA, a moderate support at 94.81. Daily indicators has macd’s heading lower and stochastic poised at a bear cross this as we appear to have a risk averse environment following significant losses European and US equities yesterday. In intraday charts we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic just crossing lower and macd flat after bottoming out. For now our immediate support appears to be under threat with a close below 94.81 a bearish entry for a run to the daily double top trigger at 94.13, key support level. Take to long to break lower, see USDJPY build a base and we are likely to see a bounce by the time European markets open.