Asian Session Notes 3/19/13

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0413 moderate / 1.0443 moderate / 1.0475 moderate

Support: 1.0387 minor / 1.0364 minor / 1.0340 moderate

Following the rally off its bearish gap from the open we have Aussy closing just under the 200D SMA with the bounce off daily EMA lines looking set to push past the 61.8 Fib of our sell-off for the year, 1.0413. Among indicators we have stochastic coming off overbought levels while daily macd is still rising, we have prices currently pushing past the 200D SMA. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower in line with the bearish macd. Hourly charts however had a bullish macd and a stochastic at risk of crossing higher. For now we prefer remaining sidleined with a close above 1.0413, 61.8 Fib a likely trigger for further gains. Take too long for a push through the said price and we may end up looking for shorts by the time European markets are open.

USDJPY

Resistance: 95.88 minor / 96.25 moderate / 96.59 minor

Support: 95.43 minor / 95.08 moderate / 94.81 minor

After gapping lower at the open of Wellington markets yesterday we have USDJPY rallying in whipsaw markets to cover its bearish gap with prices now back above the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have mixed signals in the daily charts with stochastic crossing higher and macd’s with a new bear cross. Intraday we have macd bottoming out in 4H charts, nearing a bullish cross, while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Hourly indicators are also seeing a confluence of buts with stochastic again poised to push for overbought levels while macd is rising. Note we appear to have a double top forming in the hourly picture. For now we prefer looking for a buy on dips to 95.08 our moderate support though we do not expect a bug surge this early as the BoJ transitions to a Kuroda leadership from Shirakawa’s today.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2967 minor / 1.2994(00) moderate / 1.3042 minor

Support: 1.2923 minor / 1.2877 strong / 1.2825 minor

In the end Euro’s attempt to cover its gap from the Wellington open Monday ended up with a long wick in the daily charts with late action unable to hold on to gains with prices still remaining under the 200D SMA. Yesterdays pullback highs were at the 50Fib retracement level for the sell-off from Friday highs. In intraday charts we have mixed signals as stochastic is poised to cross lower in 4H charts while macd has bottomed out. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys between macd and stochastic. For now with little sense of urgency a moderate resistance at 1.2994(00), we prefer looking for shorts from the said price, 50Fib retarcement ang psychological resistance area.