Asian Session Notes 3/12/13

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.3044(45) moderate / 1.3079 moderate / 1.3117 moderate

Support: 1.3023 moderate / 1.2987 minor / 1.2954 moderate

After Friday’s big sell-off we have EURJPY with technical pullback as prices closed at 1.3000 last week failing to stay under the psychological price point. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to cross up with a bullish divergence in tow, while macd is also crossing higher. Intraday we have a broadening pattern in 4H charts suggesting atleast bearish momemtum is lost if not a bullish reversal with macd just crossing up and stochastic looking to push overbought. Hourly charts has macd’s heading up and stochastic looking to cross higher. At this point we seem to be consolidating after the recent hammering that Euro took with prices remaining under the daily EMA’s suggesting bearish breakouts are a possibility. For now we appear to be at risk of mean reversion the 21D EMA at 1.3117. Consider longs on a close above 1.3045.

EURJPY

Resistance: 125.96 moderate / 126.58 minor / 126.96 minor

Support: 125.20 minor / 124.82 moderate / 124.16 minor

EURJPY saw a modest rally monday following a push through the congestion resistances in New York trade, at 125.20 with price closing just around Friday’s highs covering the long wick of our daily shooting star. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing further into overbought levels while macd is heading up as prices try to push back into a range play from 2009/early 2010. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in 4H charts stochastic overbought macd above the signal though flat while candlesticks show momentum even in the Wellington trade. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought areas and candlesticks showing a shooting star. For now we prefer buying but only on a close above 125.96. Alternatively look for buys following a pullback to the 125.20 breakout point. Talk out Japan continues to suggest a bullish market with consensus in the BoJ looking for a further expansion in monetary policy.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0296 moderate / 1.0315 moderate / 1.0341 strong

Support: 1.0267 moderate / 1.0241 moderate / 1.0204(08) moderate

Monday saw Aussy closing strongly sticking to the highs above the 21D EMA as prices finally see a daily close inside the EMA lines. From indicators we have stochastic crossing higher with macd also pointing up suggesting we push further inside the EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have an overbought stochastic while macd is pushing up and candlesticks show loss of momentum, though this during the Wellington market. Note we have an inverted head and shoulder in the 4H level. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic at risk of crossing up while macd is also bullish. Calendar wise we have seen weaker than previous results in the Business Confidence index for for February from NBA at 1 against the prior 3 with Conditions reading -3. Given the charts immediate risk suggests we make a run for the key resistance at 1.0341 though fail to make a move early on and we will look for prices to ease below the 1D EMA, ah hourly close under 1.0267 would be an excuse to look for a bear market.