Asian Session Notes 3/08/13: Waiting for Chinese Trade Figures

EURJPY

Resistance: 124.63 moderate / 125.00(21) psychological / 125.94 moderate

Support: 123.86 minor / 123.30 minor / 122.81 moderate

After a long wait through the first half of the week we finally have EURJPY pushing past the 34D EMA and through the subsequent 21D EMA with prices now back inside the range of the previous descending triangle. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought levels and still pointing up while macd has also just crossed higher. In the lower time frames we have 4H candlesticks losing momentum in Wellington trade while stochastic is overbought and macd is rising. Hourly charts has macd poised to cross lower while stochastic is already well on its way to the 20 mark. At this point a combination of leadership changes in the BoJ and expectations over US jobs results later would mean focus is on further gains. For now we prefer a buy on dips to at least 123.86.

GBPJPY

Resistance: 143.00 moderate / 143.55 minor / 144.07 moderate

Support: 142.12(30) moderate / 141.60 moderate / 141.09 minor

Thursday saw GBPJPY push past the daily EMA lines inline with the broader risk taking appetite. Market appears to be pricing in the idea of a strong US job figure for February given recent figures. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought while macd has also crossed up. Intraday charts however appears to have a different view with price action showing a gravestone doji in the 4H candlesticks and stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is bullish. From the hourly picture we appear to be at risk of crossing lower in both macd and stochastic with a descending triangle forming among the candlesticks. Immediate risk calls for a pullback under the daiy EMA’s. We prefer looking for a bounce off the 55D EMA at 141.60 or after base building above the 142.12(30) region.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0273 moderate / 1.0314 moderate / 1.0341 strong

Support: 1.0258 minor / 1.0243 moderate / 1.0214 moderate

Aussy pulled back to the daily EMA lines Thursday on a broad based risk taking with pruces now just under 1.0273 the 21D EMA. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys though stochastic appears to be faltering under the 80 barrier while macd has a new bullish cross. From the lower time frames we have formed a double top in 4H charts with stochastic just crossing lower and macd flat above its signal line. Hourly indicators for their part has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is poised to cross lower. For now we are looking for a bear market with a push under 1.0258 as our trigger. Note we have Chinese Trade Balance seen jumping to the deficit side, such a move would likely weigh on Aussy if coing worse than the -8.8 billion dollar consensus.

GBPUSD

Resistance:1.5042 minor / 1.5078 moderate / 1.5118 minor

Support: 1.5000 strong / 1.4966 moderate / 1.4909 minor

Cable managed to push back above the 1.5000 level as markets in general saw risk appetite and following the knee-jerk response to an ass-is decision on rates and the APF. Among indicators we have a flat macd with stochastic poised to push oversold. In intraday charts we have macd’s flat below the signal while stochastic has also just crossed lower. Hourly charts for their part has macd flat aw well while stochastic is bullish. For now we prefer remaining sideline though we see more ranging action consider buys off 1.5000 and shorts at the approach of 1.5200.