The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
By Marc Nemenoff | February 27, 2013 2:08 AM EST
Financials: June Bonds are currently 19 higher at 144'11 and the June 10 Yr. Note 6 higher at 132'22.0. Yesterday Bonds rallied sharply as equities and the EuroFX broke sharply on concerns over the Italian elections. Conventional wisdom at the moment fears that Italy will not live up to austeritiy programs without a stable coalition and once again throw the EC into a period of chaos. Those of you who are regular readers of my "Report" will recognize that I am always looking for the "chink in conventional wisdom". That being said, my bias remains long term negative and I am looking to take advantage of this flight to safety to once again start trading from the short side. I'm using rallies as selling opportunies but recommend keeping the positions small. Are you risk adverse, consider buying puts and/or put spreads. Or another alternative, do the long Bonds/short 10 Yr. Note spread or long the 10 Yr. Note/short the 5 Yr. Note spread.
Grains: May corn is currently 2'2 higher at 687'4, May Beans 6'6 lower at 1428'4, May Wheat 2'0 lower at 703'2 and Dec. Wheat 2'0 lower at 731'4. We remain long out of the money call spreads in Dec. Wheat. I will be a buyer in May Corn below the 675'0 level and/or July Corn below 655'0.
Cattle: Apr. LC are currently 15 lower at 128.27 and Mar. FC 50 lower at 140.30. As expected nearby contracts of LC gained on deferred contracts yesterday as a result of Friday afternoons Cattle on Feed Report. Feeder Cattle on the other hand had just the opposite reaction with nearby contracts losing ground to the deferred contract. Overnight Mar. FC traded below the 140.00 level coming close to testing support in the 139.00 area. Speculative and hedge short positions might consider starting to cover positions.
Silver: May Silver is currently 7 cents lower at 27.98 and Apr. Gold 10.00 higher at 1596.00. We continue to hold a small long position in Silver. If you remain long Gold either take profits or raise your protective sell stop from the 1582.00 level to 1592.00. Gold is currently in resistance.
S&P's: Mar. S&P's are currently7.25 higher at 1494.50. Yesterday the market broke sharply mid session as concerns mounted over the current Italian elections. If you remain short either take profits on breaks or use a protective buy stop at 1503.00. If the market trades below the 1487.00 level lower your stop to 1497.00. Near term support is currently 1472.00 and resistance 1497.00.
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 15 lower at 1.3107, the Swiss 2 higher at 1.0750, the Yen 70 higher at 1.0868 and the Pound 10 lower at 1.5177. The Euro is currently too volatile for me to trade as it rallies or breaks 100 points on the latest news from Italy (the range over the last 24 hours is 1.3020-1.3321). The Yen is starting to look interesting once again as it rallies to near resistance in the 1.1100-1.1200 area (yesterdays high 1.1009). I will be a seller above the 1.1140 level if the market allows.
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