Stats Wizard Nate Silver Predicts The 2013 Oscars
By IBTimes Staff Reporter | February 24, 2013 2:24 PM EST
Blogging statistician Nate Silver was widely hailed as a political genius last year after correctly forecasting the electoral-vote outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Now, Silver has thrown his hat into the Oscars prediction ring at his FiveThirtyEight blog.
In forecasting the winners of the awards to be given by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences this year, Silver has again turned to a rational analysis of data, as opposed to an emotional method of prediction.
Silver conducted a historical statistical study that examined the predictive power of other awards ceremonies as they relate to the Oscars. Among other things, he found the Directors Guild of America award for Outstanding Direction in a Feature Film corresponded with the Academy Award for Best Picture a whopping 80 percent of the time and the Producers Guild of America award for best production in a feature film corresponded with the Oscar for Best Picture an also-impressive 70 percent of the time.
This year’s winner of both those awards? Ben Affleck’s “Argo.”
So, based on his statistical study, Silver is absolutely certain “Argo” will be taking home the Best Picture Oscar on Sunday. According to Silver’s figures, “Argo” appears almost five times more likely to win that Academy Award than does the second-place contender, “Zero Dark Thirty.”
Silver noted in his commentary, “‘Zero Dark Thirty’ may have won slightly more critical acclaim [than “Argo”], but the critics do not vote for the Oscars; the insiders do.”
Although one might anticipate that Affleck himself is a shoo-in for the Best Director Oscar -- based on “Argo’s” likelihood of winning the Best Picture nod -- the actor-director was not even nominated in this category. As a result of his statistical study, Silver has chosen “Lincoln” director Steven Spielberg as the Academy Award winner, with “Life of Pi” director Ang Lee a close second.
Below are all of Silver’s picks for the Oscars.
Best Picture: “Argo”
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
To contact the editor, e-mail:
Most Popular Slideshows
- Kate Middleton Suffocated in Kensington Palace, Queen Elizabeth Reported War With The Duchess [PHOTOS]
- Brad Pitt Still in Love with Ex-Wife Jennifer Aniston, Staying with Angelina Jolie for Sake of Kids, Claims Brad's Psychic
- British Style Icon Kate Middleton Fashion Talk With Camilla Parker-Bowles Daughter-In-Law [PHOTOS]
- Transfer News: Manchester United's Possible Transfer Options For This Season
Join the Conversation
- The Burka Avenger Educates Children While Fighting For Girls' Education Rights In New Pakistan TV Show
- Christopher Walken To Play Mob Boss In Film Adaptation Of Four Seasons Musical 'Jersey Boys'
- William Cantrell Mistakes Human Ashes For Cocaine, May Have Snorted Remains
- Giant Alligator Eats 80-Pound Dog In North Carolina, Gator May Still Be Alive
- Steve McQueen's Last Ride, 1952 Custom Chevy Pickup Truck, Hits The Auction Block
- James Foley Beheading Video Has Play-Acting Portions – Video Experts Say
- Apple iPhone 6 Release Date, iPhone 6C or 6L Anticipation: Three Things Should Matter To New Phone Shoppers
- Upcoming Sony Xperia Z3 With Dual-SIM Support Gets Approved In China; Full Specifications Revealed; Amber-Coloured Xperia Z3 Tipped
- More Nexus 8/Nexus 9 Release Confirmed with More Leaks and Out of Stock Nexus 7 and 10
- James Foley: Release of Beheading Video by ISIS Meant to Attract More Recruits to Join the Cause – Intelligence
- 2015 Ford Mustang: Right-Hand Drive Pony Car To Be Available In Australia Next Year
- James Foley: ISIS Demanded Multimillion Ransom, US Refused To Pay---Reports