Asian Session Notes 2/14/13: GBPJPY, USDCAD, EURUSD

GBPJPY

Resistance: 145.52 minor / 145.91 moderate / 146.38 minor

Support: 145.05 minor / 144.64(86) strong / 144.24 moderate

GBPJPY is just above a support zone from 144.64 to 144.86; 38.2 Fib of our three week rally, 21D EMA and previous swing highs from January 14. Daily indicators remain bearish with macd’s just crossing lower while stochastic poised to push oversold. Price Action itself has been bearish with back-to-back daily big black candles with little hint of a reversal so far. From the 4H picture we have stochastic in the process of coming off oversold areas while macd is bearish and candlestick is forming a possible bullish engulfing. Hourly charts for their part has macd bottoming out and stochastic coming off oversold levels. For now we are remaining sidelined looking for base building in intraday charts above the strong support zone or bullish reversal candles from the higher time-frames before going long with stops just around 144.50.

USDCAD

Resistance: 1.0027 minor / 1.0041 moderate / 1.0058 minor

Support: 1.0012 minor / 0.9991 moderate / 0.9971 minor

Wednesday saw USDCAD with a long wick in the daily candle as earlier attempts at a pullback the big sell-off Tuesday were eventually reversed. We now have a daily double top in the making with its trigger at 0.9947. Among indicators we have a flat macd in the daily picture with the signal line also reading the same figure. Daily stochastic has come off overbought areas while the 21D EMA is at 0.9991 38.2 Fib of the rally from January 11. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in 4H macd and stochastic the latter pushing back to oversold levels while hourly charts are mixed. Look for a push under 1.0012 as a bearish entry immediate objective to get to the daily double top trigger at 0.9947. This may not be an intraday trade.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.3465 minor / 1.3496 minor / 1.3541 moderate

Support: 1.3432 minor / 1.3403 strong / 1.3353 moderate

Early attempts at a follow through rally in Euro were reversed in midday European trade to see EURUSD with a long wick Wednesday and a ‘shooting star’ for a daily candle. At the moment we have prices just above the 21D EMA with indicators showing a bearish macd though for now stochastic continues to point higher. Note we may be forming a lower high in daily charts with a push under 1.3432, 21D EMA possibly opening us for a reentry of the January range play. Intraday we have 4H stochastic oversold while macd is flat above the signal. Hourly charts has a confluence of bears for the two. Immediate risk calls for a push under the 21D EMA opening the previous swing lows at 1.3353, our projected low is at 1.3358. We risk developing a lower low following our lower highs in daily charts going forward.