Australian Dollar Outlook - 13 February 2013

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By Christine Gaylican | February 13, 2013 10:37 AM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has appreciated against the Greenback overnight amid confusion over the G7's stance on the JPY's recent decline.

Australia: A statement released by the G7 seemed to hose down market jitters of talk of currency market 'management' by some European leaders (namely the French).

Markets generally struck a positive tone though, despite these tensions. US and European equity markets finished higher.

In Australia, yesterday's NAB survey showed small gains in both business confidence and conditions. Despite the improvement over the past couple of months, the level of confidence and conditions is still weak and the outlook is poor.

This places further likelihood of the chance the RBA will cut rates. March is rated at approximately 40%, however, May is looming
as the more realistic timeframe, with some predicting further potential cuts in June and November.

Consumer Confidence results for February are being released at 11:30AEST today. Today in Australia, the February Consumer confidence data are released.

Confidence rose by 0.6% in January, the fourth increase in the past five months, and has been on a gentle upward trend since April 2012. We see the AUD trading between 102.50 US cents and 103.50 cents today.

Majors: A statement released by the G7 seemed to hose down market jitters of talk of currency market 'management' by some European leaders (namely the French).

The statement reaffirmed the G7's commitment to "market determined exchange rates", and noted that members would not "target" exchange rates.

However, an unnamed G7 official later threw a spanner in the works by stating that the earlier G7 statement was "misinterpreted", that it "signalled concern about excess moves in ... [and] unilateral guidance on the Japanese yen" and that "Japan will be in the spotlight at the G20 meetings later this week".

US Treasuries sold off marginally, as did core European bonds. Commodities were mixed, with oil and base metals stronger, but agricultural commodities weaker.

The main focus for markets now is the G20 meeting tomorrow and Friday in Moscow. Prior to this, US President Obama will deliver his State of the Union speech at 1:00AEST and is expected to outline new spending on infrastructure, clean energy and education.
Economic Calendar
13 FEB AU Feb Westpac -MI Consumer Sentiment
EU Dec industrial Production
UK BOE inflation report
US Jan advance retail sales

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