Australian Dollar Outlook - 12 February 2013

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By Christine Gaylican | February 12, 2013 10:10 AM EST

Australian dollar continues its losses arising from Asian markets closed for the Lunar new year holidays.

Australia: In a week of quiet trade with Asian markets closed for the rest of the week, the Australian dollar has fallen below 1.0300 against the Greenback in morning trade. With no key economic data released, movements in currencies reflected mainly positioning and flow.

The AUD continued its softness seen in yesterday's trade to fall to a low of 1.0253 against the Greenback overnight. Weak local housing Approval data released yesterday has seen expectations for a March rate cut creep up; one factor driving the currency lower at the moment.

The New Zealand dollar found support overnight, buoyed by the fact that the next move by the RBNZ is likely to be an interest rate rise.

The NZD surged against the US dollar, with the AUDNZD cross falling quite sharply to open below 1.2300 this morning. Today will see Nab business confidence figures released at 11:30am.

The key focus for currency markets this week will be the G20 meeting due later this week.

Majors: After a relatively quiet session with little news or data flow, equity markets consolidated ending the session marginally lower.

European headlines have focused mainly on the strength of the EUR of late with French and German officials divided on the issue.

Comments from Bundesbank President Weidmann dismissing talk of intervening to weaken the currency stating that "a weaker EUR should not be targeted" saw the currency bounce.

The G20 meeting in Moscow this week seems to be certain to focus on currency and competitive devaluations. Over in the US, FOMC member Yellen said overnight the Fed shall continue to take forceful action to increase the pace of economic growth and job creation for the US.

She said that the FOMC may keep rates near zero even if unemployment and inflation hit targets. The S&P 500 ended the session 0.1% lower at 1,517 whilst the DJIA fell 0.2% to close at 13,966.

European equities were also generally lower with the German DAX falling 0.2% to 7,634 whilst the FTSE rose 0.2% to 6,277.

Spot gold fell to a one month low in light volume falling 1.1% to USD 1,649.4 an ounce. Metals and commodities were mixed but generally lower.

Tonight will see UK inflation data along with ECB president Draghi speaking. US President Obama will present his plan for spurring the economy at the State of Union address tonight.
Economic Calendar
12 FEB AU NAB Business Confidence / Conditions Jan
US - Fed's George (VM) Speaks On Economy
UK - CPI / PPI Jan
EU - Italy and Spain to Sell Bills

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