The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

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By Marc Nemenoff | February 12, 2013 2:06 AM EST

Price Futures Group

Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 143'19 and the 10 Yr. Notes 3 lower at 131'20.5. Continue to treat as a trading affair between 142'19 and 145'24. My bias remains negative for the long term.

Grains: Mar. Corn is currently 2'0 lower at 707'0, Mar. Beans 15'0 lower at 1437'4, Mar. Wheat 2'4 lower at 753'4 and Dec. Wheat 4'0 lower at 780'4. Since Friday's supply/demand report these markets have broken 14 cents in Corn, 55 cents in Beans and14 cents in Wheat from intraday highs. From Thursday's close Corn is down 3 cents, Beans down 50 cents and Wheat down 3 cents. We have been stopped out of any remaining long positions in Mar. Corn purchased between 707'0-712'0 when the market traded through our sell stops at our break even point. We remain long out of the money call spreads in Dec. Wheat.

Cattle: Apr. LC closed 140 lower at 130.12 and Mar. FC 220 lower at 145.00 on Friday as the Dollar stregthened and demand remained sluggish. I am on the sidelines as far as speculative positions are concerned. A note to short hedgers in FC. For those of you who are short futures and long call spreads, consider covering the short leg of your call spreads which have declined in premium given the break in Feeder prices over the last week.

Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 41 cents lower at 31.04 and Apr. Gold 20.00 lower at 1646.00. Gold has broken out of it's recent 1657.00-1688.00 trading range. I look for the next clevel of support to be the 1629.00 level. As I have mentioned over the last few weeks, looking objectively at the daily charts I can't as yet be bullish on Gold.

S&P's: Mar. S&P's are currently 0.25 higher at 1512.75. I am still stubbornly short this market and must admit that I have certainly lost my objectively. Today I am going to take a defensive strategy and sell an out of the money put against my position. Every now and then I must remind myself of the trading adage "Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?".

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 28 lower at 1.3382, the Swiss 12 lower at 1.0895, the Yen 52 lower at 1.0725 and the Pound 109 lower at 1.5685. If you took Thursday's recommendation and sold the Euro on a stop at 1.3450 close only (the market closed that day at 1.3407) either take profit or use a protective buy stop in the 1.3465 area if you remain short. Should the Euro trade below the 1.3345 level, lower your stop to your break even level.

Regards, Marc
888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

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