Asian Session Note 2/11/2013

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0326 minor / 1.0344 strong / 1.0386 moderate

Support: 1.0296 moderate / 1.0275 moderate / 1.0255 minor

Given our close we have confirmed our weekly double top breakout with prices still well under the 1.0344 trigger, now a strong resistance area despite Friday’s bounce and bullish engulfing. Indicators wise we have a mixed view as stochastic has come-off oversold levels while macd continues to head lower. Note we have a holiday hit Asian market while calendars show little possible catalyst. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as well in the 4H picture while stochastic has a bearish bias in the hourly level in line with macd’s opening lower. Given the holidays we prefer remaining sideline in thin markets though a rejection from 1.0344 once more may be tradable with limited expectations at most a test of Friday’s lows.

NZDUSD

Resistance: 0.8364 minor / 0.8391 moderate / 0.8413 moderate

Support: 0.8338 minor / 0.8323 minor / 0.8297 moderate

Friday saw Kiwi with a technical correction following sharp losses the prior two trading days and rejection from the key resistance at 0.8480. Indicators has macd heading lower while stochastic has crossed up and prices are between the daily EMA lines. Note NZDUSD has been on a range play since the start of the year though its floor is porous. In the lower time frames we have mied signal in 4H charts as macd crosses up while stochastic still points lower, Friday’s bounce appear to have taken us to the 50 Fib area. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic crossing lower and macd’s flat. For now we prefer getting a bear market though the Chinese and Japanese absence would suggest that we don’t have liquidity for a big move. We are looking for a bearish breakout of the range play from January.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.3381 minor / 1.3405 strong / 1.3455 minor

Support: 1.3351 minor / 1.3297 moderate / 1.3265 strong

Friday saw an inverted hammer in EURUSD suggesting that bearish momentum has been lost though we also have a break into the range play from mid-January and prices are inside the daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have daily stochastic oversold and macd heading lower though holidays in Asia means little action is to be expected. Intraday we have a similarly bearish picture in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with macd just opening up though stochastic is at risk of a bear cross. With the mixed intraday charts and inverted hammer in the daily’s we prefer waiting for a close above 1.3405 before going long.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5820 moderate / 1.5847 moderate / 1.5885(91) moderate

Support: 1.5777 moderate / 1.5741 minor / 1.5715 minor

With the two day rally, Thursday and Friday, we have Cable closing the week just under its previous weekly double top breakout point. At the moment we have prices just around the 21D EMA 1.5805 with the pattern trigger at 1.5820. Indicators has stochastic poised to push overbought while macd is rising in the daily picture. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is pointing up. In hourly charts we have stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has just crossed lower. With the holidays and clean economic calendar we are unlike to see huge price action that said the series of moderate resistances makes for a possible sell on rallies to 1.5820 and 1.5847.