Alpari Grain Outlook 02/08

Friday's USDA monthly crop report came out giving something for both the bulls and bears. For corn ending stocks inventories was estimated at 632 million bushels, up 32 m.b. from last month and 16 m.b. over pre-report trade estimates. Lower exports made the difference. The only bullish news was that Argentina corn production was lower by 1 million metric tons at 27.0 million metric tons.

Bean carryover came in at 125 m.b., off 5 m.b. from pre-report estimates and 10 million bushels under last month, due largely to better exports. That was offset with higher production in Brazil at 83.5 m.m.t., or 1 million metric tons higher than last month.

Corn traded mixed on the report hovering at unchanged late in the session as forecast still have central Argentina very dry and that's their prime corn growing area. Beans broke down 30 to 35 I believe off the weather with Brazil to get rains over the recent dry areas of southern Brazil next week. Nothing in the report changes the big picture. When we come in Monday they will say what report and go back to trading weather in South America.
Wheat came in better with ending stocks pegged at 691 m.b., versus 716 last month and 26 m.b. under pre-report estimates. The higher trade after the report came largely off short covering.

March corn support as we entered Friday was 7.10 then 6.80 resistance 7.20 then 7.45. March bean support Friday was 14.55 then 14.30 resistance 15.00. March wheat support is 7.30 with resistance 7.75.

A short report today as the heavy snows up to 2 feet entering the New York area has Alpari closing the offices earlier, so we will update the crop report from today on Monday and Tuesday and break it down in a little more detail. For now it appears that the traders do not want to go long into the weekend anticipating another dry week next week in South America as it appears there's some rain in the forecast starting possibly midweek through Friday.

For those who have questions on grains or would like to open a futures trading account at Alpari and use me as your broker, call me at 312-470-1112 x3304 or e-mail timothy.hannagan@alpari-us.com.

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