Britain Will Avoid Triple-Dip Recession as Business Confidence Soars
By Shane Croucher | February 4, 2013 10:21 PM EST
Britain will avoid a widely forecast triple-dip recession as business confidence soars in the first quarter of 2013, according to a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.
The UK economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012 and a recent poll of Britons found that almost two-thirds predict the country will slip into an unprecedented third recession before a recovery.
ICAEW's Business Confidence Monitor index hit 12.8 in January, up sharply from the fourth quarter's 4.2.
"There was a risk that, combined with the traditional January blues, the bad weather and some high-profile retail collapses, talk of a triple dip recession could become self-fulfilling," said Michael Izza, chief executive of ICAEW.
"These results show that we are set to avoid a third period of technical recession, but no one should be complacent. There is only one way out of our economic malaise, and that's to increase our economic output. Such a task isn't going to be easy, or indeed quick."
However, ICAEW also found that businesses were cautious about investing, highlighted by low capital investment and salary growth, as a comprehensive economic recovery continues to evade the UK.
In the fourth quarter of 2012, preliminary estimates say that UK GDP contracted by 0.3 percent. Longer-than-expected maintenance in the production industries hit output, particularly dragging on North Sea oil extraction, and the powerhouse service sector flatlined.
A separate survey by Britain's biggest lobbyist, the Confederation of British Industry, found increasing optimism among SMEs in their outlook for the coming three months.
Many economists forecast the UK returning to marginal growth in 2013 and narrolwy avoiding a triple-dip recession, but disappointing data from the third quarter suggested the economy was weaker than thought.
To report problems or to leave feedback about this article, e-mail:
To contact the editor, e-mail:
Join the Conversation
- Travel Alert: Australia Mulls To Review Airport Security Policy, Could Allow Scissors, Metal Cutlery Back In Planes
- 5 Likely Reasons Why You Are Not Getting Hired
- This Is How Obesity Weighs Down Global Economy By 2 Trillion Dollars Every Year
- Consumer Alert: Retailer Simons Goes Out Of Quebec, To Open Five Stores Across Canada
- Signs That You Are A Smartphone Zombie (And The Dangers This Poses)
- Russia Is Ready for Shooting War, Will Likely Win Looming Nuclear Showdown with U.S. – Report
- Microsoft Band Runs Out Of Stock, But Offers $10 Gift Voucher To Wait-Listed Customers
- Google Joins Forces with GoPro Inc with New Google Maps Focusing on Destination
- Target Early Black Friday 2014 Sale Ad Released For Nov. 26, 2014 Includes Deals On Toys, HDTVs And Video Games Such As ‘FIFA 15’ And ‘NHL 15’ For Xbox 360 [WATCH VIDEO]
- 16GB iPhone 6 for $99 at Sam’s Club is the Best 2014 Black Friday Deal Around
- Black Friday And Cyber Monday Sale 2014: AT&T's Cricket Wireless Offers Discounts On Lumia 1320, Galaxy S5, S4 And HTC Desire 510
- Lumia Update Will Come Soon Confirms Microsoft