Asian Session Notes Feb 04 2013

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By mdelapaz | February 4, 2013 1:21 PM EST

Fx Instructor


Resistance: 126.30 minor / 126.97 minor / 127.83 strong

Support: 125.61 minor / 125.12 minor / 124.77 minor

Following the strong aggregate 3-month figures for US jobs data we, with December and November seeing a total 127K upside revision, we saw EURJPY rally further in New York trade to close just under new highs though well short of the next key resistance at 127.83. At the moment we have a large gap between prices and the daily EMA lines. Daily indicators remain bullish with stochastic overbought and macd above its signal though potentially topping off. In intraday charts we have stochastic coming off overbought levels from the 4H picture as macd’s top-off and price action suggests an attempt at a bearish reversal after a series of spinning tops and dojis. In hourly charts we are in the process of triggering a double top while indicators has a confluence of bears. Aggressive shorts may be taken on a close under 126.30 our hourly double top trigger. We prefer a buy on tips off the 124.76 area, 38.2 Fib retracement of the previous weeks rally.


Resistance: 1.5711 minor / 1.5752 moderate / 1.5767 minor

Support: 1.5674(77) moderate / 1.5626(36) moderate / 1.5561 minor

After pulling back to the 21D EMA we have GBPUSD selling off to cover the weeks gains closing just above the lows Friday following strong numbers from the US jobs market. Note his allows us to see a confirmation of our weekly double top breakout in Cable the trigger at 1.5825. Recall we are in the process of easing off to our long-term range play floor, since August of 2008 at 1.5330. Among indicators daily macd continues to head lower while stochastic has just pushed oversold following the sell-off. In the lower time-frames 4H charts has a confluence of bears with candlesticks suggesting lost momentum following the weekend break. Hourly charts for their part are mixed. We prefer looking for a close under 1.5674(77) to signal a continuation of the bear market. Alternatively we would consider shorts from 1.5752.


Resistance: 1.0431 minor / 1.0451 moderate / 1.0476 moderate

Support: 1.0415 minor / 1.0395 minor / 1.0360 minor

In the end the bounce off European lows in Aussy Friday gave us a significant tail in our daily charts though the real body of the candle is large enough that we cannot call this a hammer. Note we have daily EMA lines beginning to generate dead cross to suggest a bear trend is in progress. Daily macd’s continue to head lower while stochastic is poised to see a bear cross as well. In the 4H charts we have a confluence of buys with prices gapping higher at the open though we are in the process off covering the gap. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd with stochastic at risk of developing a bear cross and divergence. Following the weak Building Approvals figures we are looking to continue a pattern of lower highs and lower lows in price action. Consider shorts on a close under 1.0415 for 1.0372 the projected low though the key support at 1.0344, weekly double top trigger beckons.

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