Canadian Dollar Flat After US Data; Ends Week Higher
February 2, 2013 4:22 PM EST
The Canadian dollar was little changed on Friday, but ended the week stronger versus its U.S. counterpart after U.S. jobs and manufacturing data pointed to steady recovery in Canada's main trading partner.
The Canadian currency gained 0.9 percent for the week. It ended January down more than half a percent after the Bank of Canada said last week that interest rate hikes were less imminent. That news pushed it to less than equal value with the greenback for the first time since November.
The less hawkish stance, and any variation on it, is likely remain a central factor in the Canadian currency's future amid a global backdrop of activist monetary policy.
"The Canadian dollar is on its own at the moment because of the Bank of Canada and its change of policy. Everyone is looking at what each individual central bank is willing to do to affect the currency," said Darren Richardson, a corporate dealer at CanadianForex.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew modestly in January but gains in the prior two months were bigger than initially reported, supporting views the economy of Canada's main trading partner was on track for a sluggish recovery despite a surprise contraction in output in the final three months of 2012.
"The only surprise was that there was a large revision higher, so I would suspect the move in dollar/Canada has been on that revision higher for the December and November period," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.
Separate reports on Friday showed U.S. factory activity hit a nine-month high in January as new orders rebounded, while car and truck sales surged and consumer confidence perked.
Sutton described the jobs report as "mildly positive" for the Canadian dollar, but said the impact was modest because the data was unlikely to shift policy at the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has tied its monetary stance to labor market improvement.
The Canadian dollar ended Friday trade at C$0.9973 to the greenback, or $1.0027, exactly where it finished at Thursday's North American close.
MIXED ON THE CROSSES
The Canadian currency was mixed against other major currencies; hitting its strongest level against the Japanese yen since May 2010 as investors bet the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy further; and weakening to a fresh 13-month low of C$1.3709 against the euro as the single currency recorded broad gains on a positive euro zone outlook.
It has weakened by more than 5 percent against the surging euro since early January.
"Euro/Canadian dollar is on a tear at the moment and it looks like for all the world it's going to trade up to C$1.42," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities.
Scotiabank's Sutton said traders' attention will now turn to a European Central Bank policy meeting next week, where dovish voices may be heard on the euro's rise, to China data over the weekend, and to Canada's own employment report at the end of next week.
She said the Canadian currency would likely test resistance at C$0.9902 as reallocation away from the currency is somewhat reversed over the next week, with C$1.01 capping any weakness.
Illustrating a growing disconnect between the Canadian currency and North American equity markets, the benchmark Toronto Stock Exchange index .GSPTSE gained some 0.7 percent on Friday and more than 2 percent in January.
The price of a two-year Canadian government bond slipped 5 Canadian cents to yield 1.189 percent, while the benchmark 10-year bond fell 44 Canadian cents to yield 2.039 percent.
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