Asian Session Notes 1/31/2013

GBPJPY

Resistance: 144.20(25) moderate / 144.77 moderate / 145.00 psychological

Support: 143.60 minor / 143.06 moderate / 142.50 moderate

Wednesday saw GBPJPY surging along with the rest of the Yen pairs though we still saw a lower high in our multiple from the daily charts at 144.20. Daily indicators has stochastic crossing higher looking poised to push back into overbought levels while macd is flat under the signal line. Note the lower highs in our daily multiple top is a strong hint of bears lurking. In the lower time frames we have a double top in hourly charts with indicators showing a bearish stochastic and macd while the 4H picture has mixed signals though price action appears to be trying to get a bearish break out. Given the hints for a pullback look for a close under 143.60 to signal short or a rejection from just under 144.20 as an excuse for taking the sell side.

EURUSD

Resistances: 1.3587 minor / 1.3608 moderate / 1.3650 minor

Support: 1.3555 minor / 1.3531 minor / 1.3500 strong

After pausing under 1.3500 in Asia we saw Euro pushing past the key resistance level at the open of European markets as real money demand continue to push the single currency higher. Note with the threat of a European dissolution already history we now have money stashed away returning to the single currency area. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought and macd’s pushing up. In intraday charts we have have a confluence of buys as well from the 4H picture though price action is suggesting loss of momentum once more. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic showing a divergence and macd a new bear cross. That said given the strong breakout from yesterday and risk appetite on expectation of a strong US jobs market we prefer a buy on dips to the 1.3531 and 1.3500 area.

NZDUSD

Resistance: 0.8367 minor / 0.8397 moderate / 0.8423 minor

Support: 0.8343 strong / 0.8307 minor / 0.8280 moderate

Following repeated intraday bearish break-outs through out the week we have Kiwi holding above its key support, 0.8343 38.2 Fib retracement of the rally from December 26. Daily candlesticks show either long tails or big white bodies though little progress has been made in pushing for the congestion highs. Indicators has stochastic pushing up while macd remains flat under the signal line. Note we have EMA lines flattening out with prices just around the 21D EMA. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in 4H and hourly macd and stochastic with a double bottom in the former while hourly price action has a flag pattern. For now we prefer looking to trigger the hourly flag with a break of 0.8367 pushing for the pattern target at 0.8430, projected highs are at 0.8423. Note we are expecting risk appetite with market possibly pricing a strong read in US NFP Friday.