Alpari Grain Outlook 01/29

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By Tim Hannagan | January 30, 2013 10:13 AM EST


Monday's weekly export inspections report showed wheat inspected for near-term export came in estimated at 22.2 million bushels versus 22.5 the week prior and four week average of 13.2. The market responded by dropping down five cents after its release as traders expected better exports of 28 m.b. or better. I did notice the world's largest monthly wheat buyer, Egypt was in for 3 m.b. but that's just a nibble. There's talk of the recent political upheaval there would put their AG apartment on hold as offices and personnel fear showing up. But it's all about the wheat going to the feed nation in Asia. Animal populations are stable or constant. They don't double Hog and chicken numbers overnight. So feed wheat exports remained constant to the current slow export base. We need those large spontaneous exports of wheat for human consumption. Without that, any wheat rally of any measurable amount would come as a followers roll to a bean and corn rally or we break dormancy in March and have bad weather here creating a production worry and fear rally.

Corn inspections were 21.1 m.b. up from 11.5 the week prior and weak four week average of 8.7. It's improvement but not as bullish as the 30+ needed weekly to really drive prices. But a closer look showed China was in for 6.5 of the total. It appears China is picking up buying a little to get some corn in the pipeline as corn movement due to inland shipping channel problems are arising. The Mississippi water depth has barge traffic almost at a standstill. Barge numbers per tug have gone from 20 to 12 or less with many barges half-full to keep weight down as not to hit bottom. The current report had China with 3 m.b. on the Mississippi heading to the Gulf port to be loaded but 4.2 being shipped out of the Pacific Northwest ports, obviously to avoid the long haul and wait on the Mississippi. So, there is the debate for traders. Is the increase a demand surge to drive prices or China getting more in their cart to compensate for a long line and wait. Since were almost $20 per ton of corn more expensive than most export competitors, it suggest the latter.

Bean inspections were 40.6 million bushels down from 49 the week prior but equal the four-week average. Beans initially broke from up 4 cents to down 8, but finished higher on the day. Of the 40.6 m.b. China was in for 27.9 of the total up from the week prior of 26.8 and the highest number in six weeks. Market continues to struggle with conflicting weather forecasts in Brazil and Argentina. The GFS model has backed off its wet forecast for next week and push that rain out to February 10 to 14. The European weather models continues dry. Additionally, forecasters are hinting towards a dry February.

Trade one week and one weather update at a time as longer-term forecast flip-flop as often as the short-term 6 to 10 day outlook. A dry February and 15.40 beans basis March will be tested and 7.70 March corn. A generally wet February and slowing demand, 6.40 March corn and 13.25 March beans could be tested. Near term technicals read like this. March corn support is 7.10 then 6.80 with resistance 7.30, 7.35 then 7.60. March bean support is 14.30 then 14.14. Resistance 14.65 then 15.00. March wheat support is 7.60 then 7.45. Resistance is 7.90 then 8.20.

For those who have questions on grains or would like to open a futures trading account at Alpari and use me as your broker, call me at 312-470-1112 x3304 or e-mail

Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange, commodity futures, options and other over-the-counter products carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage associated with such trading can result in substantial losses, as well as gains. The past performance of any trading strategy or methodology is not indicative of future results, which can vary due to market volatility; it should not be interpreted as a forecast of future performance. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition, level of experience and appetite for risk, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor, if you have any doubts. Alpari (US), LLC is dually registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Retail Foreign Exchange Dealer and has been a member of the NFA since 2007 - Member ID: 0379678.

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