Asian Session Notes 1/29/2013

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By mdelapaz | January 29, 2013 1:21 PM EST

Fx Instructor

EURNZD

Resistance: 1.6122 minor / 1.6167 minor / 1.6205 strong

Support: 1.6072 minor / 1.5993 minor / 1.5944 minor

After an earlier surge a late turn-around for commodity currencies saw EURNZD easing off for a long wick, a gravestone at the close for Monday. Daily indicators has stochastic in the process of coming off overbought areas while the macd is still pointing up. Note we saw a false break of 1.6205, a strong resistance area 61.8 Fib of the sell-off from April 2012. In the lower time frames we have a bearish bias with hourly stochastic reentering oversold areas to suggest a bear trend in the making as macd heads lower. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised to go oversold while macd is at the brink of crossing lower. With the rejection from 1.6205 we prefer taking the sell side ideally off 1.6122 or on an hourly close under 1.6072.

GBPUSD

Resistances: 1.5716 minor / 1.5750 moderate / 1.5783 minor

Support: 1.5676 moderate / 1.5652 moderate / 1.5636 moderate

We continue to see Cable lose ground following the weekly scale double top breakout. Indicators in both weekly and daily charts show stochastic oversold, the latter having reentered sub 20 levels to confirm the ongoing bear trend. Macd’s for both time-frames also heading lower. From the 4H picture we have a mixed view with a hammer in afternoon trade from New York followed by a doji even as stochastic comes off oversold areas and macd continues to drop. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys. With a series of moderate supports and an ongoing attempt at a pullback the preferred course of action is a sell-on rallies to the 1.5750 resistance area. Alternative entry will be to short only after we push past our series of moderate supports. We continue to think of 1.5300 as our key objective.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0442 minor / 1.0465 moderate / 1.0490 strong

Support: 1.0418 minor / 1.0405 minor / 1.0384 minor

Monday saw Aussy reversing earlier losses by the New York trade to see a hammer at the close with better than expected releases out of Australia seeing an early follow through at the Asian open. Among indicators we continue to see bear signals with daily stochastic oversold and macd’s heading lower. Note we are still forming a double top in the weekly charts with the current bounce a possible pullback to the 55D EMA, 38.2 Fib at 1.0465 retracement of the sell-off for January. In intraday charts we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture from both stochastic and macd though hourly charts have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels. Given the broader picture we prefer taking the sell side, look for shorts of 1.0465 for another push to yesterdays lows heading for the weekly double top breakout point, 1.0344.

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